Election 2006

2006 should shape-up to be a big political year. We have the potential for a significant congressional election. In Arizona, we have Gubernatorial, US Senate, CD 8, AG and Secretary of State races. The governor's race is not looking terribly competitive at this point, the Republicans cannot get their act together. However, I would not anoint the Gov quite yet. There are 11 months between now and Election Day, an eternity in politics. She will have a tough legislative session, but things do look good.

The senate race will be targeted nationally, at least initially. Arizona was supposed to be targeted in 2004, but we saw how long that lasted. Petersen could beat Kyle, but it will take a near perfect campaign by Petersen with Kyle making some significant mistakes. Kyle's numbers do not look great. I suspect that most people do not know the name of their junior senator, let alone have familiarity with his policies.

I have not heard a lot about the AG race. If I were a Republican strategist, I would go after everything, but the Governor. In Arizona, Clean Elections makes taking out incumbents exceedingly difficult, so the Rs would have a tough time.

CD8 looks to have strong candidates on both sides. Gabby Gifford seems to be the presumptive favorite. If her fundraising is as strong as I have heard, she will be very hard to beat, but not impossible. Regardless of the primary outcome, Dems should be assured a good candidate. The Rs cannot say that...


Few people are paying attenation to the Secretary of State race. Jan Brewer has a significant primary challenger in former Phoenix mayor Rimza. I am not sure he can beat her or how that will affect the overall race. My sense is that Brewer is not a particularly good candidate and has made some dumb mistakes, like this . So far the only Dem in the race is Bruce Wheeler. He is a former legislator and Tucson City Council person. He seems like the only person in the race interested in the actual job of Secretary of State. The other candidates are clearly running for higher office. Wheeler has more of a shot than the powers that be in Maricopa give him credit; it is a typical case of no respect for Pima county pols.