Monday, July 02, 2007

Presidential Primary Calendar, maybe a different scenerio?

So, everyone is grousing about the new primary setup . I have read the complaints in so many places that I cannot count them all. The operating theory is that we will have a few early primaries, then the big one and everything will be over after that... Really? I can see a distinctly different scenario as a possibility.

I have worked on enough campaigns to know how they are thinking right now. It is not rocket science to think that the top-tier and second-tier will start sifting through polling and look at their fundraising numbers and start choosing targets. I am not sure that Clinton or Obama with their vast sums of money can compete in a nation-wide primary.

Here is the possibility that I see. Imagine Edwards continues his current path and goes after Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina (wins 2 or 3). Obama goes after 5 or 6 states (wins say 4). Hillary competes everywhere and comes in second a lot (she still gets delegates in second) and leads the delegate count. I would not be surprised if Richardson won a couple... This could break out many ways, but over in a day is not the only one.

Conventional wisdom is politics is a funny thing, it is always right, well until it isn't...

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