Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Hillary Clinton = Mike Huckabee

I know that many Clinton supporters will be angry with me for saying it, but Hillary Clinton has become the Mike Huckabee of the Democratic race. I am choosing to ignore the spin about Texas and Ohio mainly because I have reality and mathematics to rely upon.

Hillary cannot overcome Obama's delegate lead. He will likely win Texas outright or just win a majority of delegates. It is nearly mathematically impossible for her to catch up... But, like Huckabee's supporters they will claim that there is still a chance. After all, they majored in "miracles not mathematics", sorry but I did not. Here is one calculation of the math (there are others).

I know there have been all kinds of excuses and recriminations, but the reality of the contest is that it is about delegates. BTW -- Even if Obama loses Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, the "he has not won any big states" argument is not only stupid, but wrong. Just for the record, Missouri(11), Minnesota(10), Virginia(13), Georgia (15) and Illinois (21) are not small states (electoral votes). Of the 15 most populous states that have voted, ten in total (No Michigan and Florida are not included) Obama has won 5. If you count Michigan and Florida, that makes eleven and he has still won almost half, so spare me...

Furthermore, anyone that uses an excuse other than voter fraud for losing an election is by nature not only whiny, but really someone who does not understand the one truism of politics, winning is all that matters.

HRC can keep praying for miracles, but one is not coming. Maybe it is time she learned to play "Sweet Home Alabama" on the bass and started travelling with her own house band because she is already from Arkansas (and waiting on a miracle).



UPDATE: I thought this was interesting... Was the ad not effective?

UPDATE: Here is the big state math from DailyKos


2 voted but there was no campaign: MI and FL
5 haven't voted yet: TX, OH, PA, IN, and NC
5 have voted for Obama: IL, WA, MO, VA, and GA
and 5 have voted for Clinton: CA, NY, NJ, MA, and TN
The whole "Big State" thing is a myth.

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