Good discussion of McCain's Arizona problem

While I doubt that Barack Obama will win the state of Arizona, it is certainly possible with right culmination of events. This article gives a pretty good overview of the current situation.

The fact is that many local conservatives despise John McCain. While they are not going to cross-over in significant numbers to vote for Obama, they might stay home in large enough numbers to affect the outcome or at least make McCain sweat.

The simple fact is that Democrats are going to vote for Barack Obama and he is doing well with Independent voters. When you add the fact that many Arizonians have no history with John McCain because they are new residents, it really presents a potential problem.

Having said all of that, unless Obama is headed to a major national landslide I would expect many undecided voters to swing to McCain. I still think the article makes the most likely call that the race will end up 55 to 45 McCain. The prospect of a Ron Paul or some other strong Libertarian candidate has to keep McCain's people up at night.