McCain closing on Obama (only if you are dumb)

The older I get the more I find it hard to listen to the MSM. It is divorced from reality and unable to grasp the most obvious details in pursuit of filling their 24/7 news cycle. The latest story is that McCain is gaining on Obama. Of course if you look at the national polls it is true. Unfortunately for McCain, it doesn't really matter. The national polls may make supporters feel good or bad, but they are meaningless (winning the popular vote is a moral victory).

The line reminds of the HRC stories about her being ahead (inevitable) in the national polls before Iowa. Note to press, the presidential race consists of 50 state-wide races that are winner take all (please ask Al Gore how it works). Obama's people seem to be doing the same things in the general that they did in the primary, using the format and rules to their advantage.

Here is the reality:

1. Obama still leads nationally (even if it is meaningless).


2. McCain has not put away Arizona yet, he is currently under 45%.


3. Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, Florida and Georgia are all within 5 points. McCain cannot lose any of these without winning Ohio and some other Democratic state.


4. Obama holds comfortable leads in most of his base states (except New Hampshire).


5. McCain's burnrate is unsustainable, he spent roughly $10 million more than he took in last month.


6. Obama is investing in a big victory (voter registration, traditionally Republican states and a massive field program). It is hard to know which of these will pay off, but Obama is building a huge operation while still maintaining his lead.


7. Many Obama supporters are not being polled. If you registered recently, if you only have a cell phone, if you have not voted in many previous elections then you are not likely to be polled.


8. Likely voters models and samples are built from the last election. This election will be very different demographically.

I am not trying to justify anything here, but just state facts and most likely scenarios. The press can say what they want, but I would not trade where we are for McCain's standing.

PS -- My ability to post is greatly diminished at the moment. I would still love to get some permanent guest posters. Email me at ademlament@gmail.com if you are interested.