I pride myself on being a good predictor of political races, but I have to say that I have no idea who will win in Phoenix district 7. In the end, I think the candidate that wins will have the best field operation and I don't know enough about either candidate to know their strengths. I would not assume that the Firefighters (supporting Nowakowski) or Ed Pastor (Laura Pastors dad) will guarantee a good ground game for either campaign. The Firefighters support if fully committed to a candidate can be significant, but sometimes an endorsement is just an endorsement. I am not sure that Ed Pastor's people have had a tough race in a while and maybe rusty...
The winner will likely come in the early vote and that is where the Mayor's support could help Pastor (although, once again depending on the level of commitment). The Mayor's people understand the importance of the early vote and from what I hear have a good turnout program. It will be interesting.
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