McCain closing on Obama (only if you are dumb)

The older I get the more I find it hard to listen to the MSM. It is divorced from reality and unable to grasp the most obvious details in pursuit of filling their 24/7 news cycle. The latest story is that McCain is gaining on Obama. Of course if you look at the national polls it is true. Unfortunately for McCain, it doesn't really matter. The national polls may make supporters feel good or bad, but they are meaningless (winning the popular vote is a moral victory).

The line reminds of the HRC stories about her being ahead (inevitable) in the national polls before Iowa. Note to press, the presidential race consists of 50 state-wide races that are winner take all (please ask Al Gore how it works). Obama's people seem to be doing the same things in the general that they did in the primary, using the format and rules to their advantage.

Here is the reality:

1. Obama still leads nationally (even if it is meaningless).


2. McCain has not put away Arizona yet, he is currently under 45%.


3. Montana, North Dakota, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, Alaska, Indiana, Missouri, Florida and Georgia are all within 5 points. McCain cannot lose any of these without winning Ohio and some other Democratic state.


4. Obama holds comfortable leads in most of his base states (except New Hampshire).


5. McCain's burnrate is unsustainable, he spent roughly $10 million more than he took in last month.


6. Obama is investing in a big victory (voter registration, traditionally Republican states and a massive field program). It is hard to know which of these will pay off, but Obama is building a huge operation while still maintaining his lead.


7. Many Obama supporters are not being polled. If you registered recently, if you only have a cell phone, if you have not voted in many previous elections then you are not likely to be polled.


8. Likely voters models and samples are built from the last election. This election will be very different demographically.

I am not trying to justify anything here, but just state facts and most likely scenarios. The press can say what they want, but I would not trade where we are for McCain's standing.

PS -- My ability to post is greatly diminished at the moment. I would still love to get some permanent guest posters. Email me at ademlament@gmail.com if you are interested.

Email whisper campaigns and Obama

I have heard a lot of grousing lately about the whisper campaigns happening via email. The part that is bugging me are the supporters that are crying about how unfair and underhanded it is. While that maybe true, I just want to remind everyone that (once again) there is no excuse for losing a political campaign. If Obama's campaign cannot figure out an effective strategy against these sort of smears (assuming the smears are a major factor) then tough, you don't win.

Ultimately, campaigns are a meritocracy. The best candidate and campaign win. I don't care about how underhanded the Republicans become we must respond effectively. Bitchin' is not an effective response...

Yes, this guy would make a good President

Don't fear the reaper Bobby (he won't get you)

Bobby Jindal apparently believes in demons and has participated in an exorcism. How did so much dumb stick to him after attending Brown and being a Rhodes scholar?

WOW

There are sooo many jokes here... brain overwhelmed... cannot hold volume of ridicule... overload....

Good discussion of McCain's Arizona problem

While I doubt that Barack Obama will win the state of Arizona, it is certainly possible with right culmination of events. This article gives a pretty good overview of the current situation.

The fact is that many local conservatives despise John McCain. While they are not going to cross-over in significant numbers to vote for Obama, they might stay home in large enough numbers to affect the outcome or at least make McCain sweat.

The simple fact is that Democrats are going to vote for Barack Obama and he is doing well with Independent voters. When you add the fact that many Arizonians have no history with John McCain because they are new residents, it really presents a potential problem.

Having said all of that, unless Obama is headed to a major national landslide I would expect many undecided voters to swing to McCain. I still think the article makes the most likely call that the race will end up 55 to 45 McCain. The prospect of a Ron Paul or some other strong Libertarian candidate has to keep McCain's people up at night.

McCain just another politician

I thought this was a really interesting look at McCain. Of course, it came from a foreign paper which explains the balanced and nuanced coverage. My feeling is it that shows John McCain to be your everyday run of the mill ambitious politician, not that different from any other presidential contender in the past. He is certainly no saint or maverick. When you couple his behaviour in this article, his involvement with the Keating 5 incident and his more recent problems with lobbyists, I think it shows him to be someone who maybe has ideals, but has trouble abiding by them when they conflict with his own ambitions.

The contrast with Obama and Rezko, I think is telling. When Obama was asked about Rezko's purchase of property adjacent from his, he admitted that it was a dumb mistake and that it could legitimately raise questions. I believe that Obama sees this as a mistake that he has learned from and aims to avoid in the future. I am not sure you can say the same of John McCain.

Poor John, people might find out the truth

I think this video about John McCain's enormous wealth is pretty funny. I have to admit that I knew he (and by he I mean his wife) was rich, but until last week I did not know how rich. He is not Mitt Romney rich, but he is Clinton rich (yeah, Obama is the elitist here).