Michael Nowakowski: Why he won

This article was in the Arizona Republic yesterday trying to explain Laura Pastor's loss in her race for Phoenix City Council.

This is really campaigns 101. The Nowakowski campaign was doing grassroots door to door campaigning since early in the race. A good indication of this is the first controversy of the race, the handheld devices being used for door to door campaigning. I thought it was interesting that the Pastor campaign complained to the AZ Democratic Party, but did not try to get the devices from party for their own use. The implication is that even back then the Nowakowski campaign was going door to door in a systematic way and collecting the results for GOTV.

I think Pastor was running as an incumbent. It is bad when a de facto incumbent is forced into a runoff. The first election showed the extent of her support. The people that did not vote for Pastor before the runoff were looking for an alternative. The runoff eliminated all of the alternatives to Pastor except Nowakowski.


Finally, almost anyone can win a low turnout election. If you have a strong GOTV operation you can win, it is that simple. A good example in contrast is Raul Grijalva's first race for Congress. The Grijalva people are known for their grassroots campaigns and for taking nothing for granted. Grijalva won a multi-candidate primary without much support from the Democratic establishment by running a superior grassroots campaign and GOTV operation. He found a strong base of support and turned them out. (BTW -- They still do this every election. )


Here are couple things to remember about any election:

1. Winners usually have a campaign plan and they stick to it.


2. To be successful campaigns have to communicate with voters to determine the level of support and to influence undecided voters.


3. Early vote operations are more important than Election Day. Most elections in Arizona are won in the weeks before election day.


4. If you are not available when the press calls your point of view will not be represented. See the New Times Article about the race.


5. Respond quickly and vigorously to attacks.
   
6. The only endorsements that matter are ones that bring you resources (money, staff or boots on the ground like the Firefighters and UNITE HERE), everything else is just inside baseball for people like me (and anyone who reads this blog).
7. Do not believe your own press. No matter what the political establishment thinks, you are not inevitable until you actually have more votes. Until the votes are cast, you should work like you are 4 points down and act as though every vote counts.

I know many Pastor supporters are upset (I know, I have gotten my share of hate mail from them), but Laura Pastor's political career does not have to be over. She still has a lot to offer and she can win another office, if she learns the lessons of this campaign. The press loves writing the story about a political candidate overcoming defeat (After all, Barack Obama, George Bush, Bill Clinton and Abraham Lincoln all lost their first race for public office). The Pastor family still has a lot of offer Arizona.