Nevada caucus

I am not sure I believe any of the polls I have seen for Nevada. I am pretty familiar with the politics in Nevada. The Culinary Union (UNITE HERE nationally) is pretty influential in Nevada (although, some would argue that their influence is on the wane). They are know for the strength of their membership. SEIU in Nevada is a pretty strong healthcare and public workers local.

I have talked about this before but endorsements don't mean much if they do not come with resources. If Culinary and SEIU come with a lot of resources, it could really help Obama. Given the transitory nature of Nevada, I think they could have more influence than normal.

I expect Obama to perform well, but there is also a lot of Edwards support among the unions. The real question will be the overall turnout. If turnout is low, I think Clinton is toast. I think Clinton does well if turnout is moderate. I think high turnout helps Obama. There is also the X factor of the lawsuit. It may anger and harden the support of the Culinary membership. Then again, who knows.

UPDATE:
I ran across this poll which shows Clinton with a sizable lead. I don't think it is outside of the realm of possibility that she could have a 9-point lead. Mason-Dixon is the polling outfit and they are some of the best pollsters in the country. Not only that, but the demographics seem to make sense. Hillary has a large lead among older women and Hispanics. The real question is how the hispanic vote is affected by the union endorsements. I suspect turnout will be low enough that strong union turnout could shift that demographic. This is especially true given the high Hispanic density in the unions. There is also a big problem in determining likely caucus goers.