Why Texas will be interesting

Texas will be a particularly interesting race between Clinton and Obama. As someone who has worked in Texas, I can say that Texas is probably wide open for either candidate. The latest polling shows Obama closing the gap, but I think it is not important except to show momentum. However, all of the polls are of likely voters. Any pollster who thinks he has figured out likely voters in Texas is probably wrong.

Here is why: Texas has abysmally low voter participation. The last time I looked at state-wide numbers for TX their participation level was less than 30%. Given the low participation, polling likely voters (voters with a history of voting in primaries) probably gives very little indication of the final result. The potential pool of voters is huge.

I don't think this necessarily favors either candidate. I would not be surprised if the either candidate has a blowout victory. The winner will be the candidate with the best turnout operation.