Living in Fantasy Land

I have mentioned this problem previously, but this article illustrates better than I could explain it. The article is based on a Zogby poll that addresses the budget of the Federal Government and the next president. Specifically, it addresses how the budget will be balanced. Guess what the people want? Their programs to stay the same and no taxes increased. While I can certainly understand the sentiment, it is a real problem.

This leads me to the thing I think is most important for Democrats in the future, the debate. Right now, the debate, the conversation, is dominated by Republican themes. While reality has intruded on their theories, the debate is still one that the other party designed. The real question for the future is how do we change the nature of the debate? We may have to suffer times of unpopularity to do the right thing. We must be aggressive in defending our positions and aggressive about attacking wrong-headed Republican policies. We must lead the country.

No Oversight, No Tax Money?

I am of the opinion that if you receive tax dollars you should be subject to oversight. Here is an article from the ARIZONA DAILY STAR about charter schools who want to be exempt from "curriculum alignment''. This basically means that there are benchmarks for achievement that need to be met. The example given is

the state board mandates that third graders know how to multiply and divide by numbers up to 9.

Basically, the charter schools can achieve the requirements however they like, but there are certain standards that have to be met. It seems like an imminently reasonable idea to me, but brings up a more interesting question.

Should every organization that chooses to receive tax dollars be subject to oversight no matter what the legislature thinks. Should there be a de facto acceptance of oversight by accepting public money? If not, how would you govern a system to avoid abuse by organizations that cannot be overseen by public entities? In this case, how would you ensure that schools are actually teaching and not just keeping the money? How do we oversee Charter schools, I honestly don't know?

Worried about Education? Read This...

This is one of the most brilliant articles that I have read about education and educational outcomes. Here is the article. I have always been bothered by the people that complain that some inner city schools get more money (some actually do...) than better performing schools and how patently unfair that is... Rarely do I ever hear someone mention that it might actually cost more to bring struggling kids up to standard.

Our approach to education is really backward.

Anyway, read the article...

Thomas Watch: Andy One Note Update

Apparently, there is still at least one rational judge in Maricopa County. Rather than putting away the crappy vegan mother for thirty years, the judge thinks that her sentence should be reduced. Here is the article. Here is a quote from the judge:

"The evidence at the trial showed that you acted in good faith in your belief that you were properly raising these children," O'Toole said before delivering the sentence. "You did not act with criminal intent. However, you did act recklessly in your grossly misguided sense of how to raise and properly nurture your children."

And this:

"There's no doubt you love your children," O'Toole said. "Unfortunately, they were at the mercy of your bizarre philosophy of diet and so forth."

And what does Andy think?

County Attorney Andrew Thomas said that his office would "strongly oppose any attempt to reduce this sentence."

"Thirty years in prison is entirely appropriate for a person who almost starved to death three defenseless children," Thomas said.

I find myself surprised sometimes when something sensible happens...

Sure Rep. Jefferson Is Scummy, but the Decision is Right

Here is an article about the 9th Circuit Court's decision regarding the raid of Rep. Jefferson's office (the Congressman from Louisiana). I really wanted to see Jefferson go down because he is clearly corrupt and a Democrat. I had hoped that he would not be reelected, but it is Louisiana after all.

Having said all of that, I was a little disturbed when the FBI raided his Congressional office. It was particularly troubling from a separation of powers standpoint. It seemed more than a little dangerous that the executive branch could indict and raid any Congressional office and collect any information that it wanted. This is even more true considering the abuse of power from the Bush Administration. It is good to see that the courts still can make good decisions.

The Unsexy Part of Govenment

No one like to debate infrastructure policy or proper management at organizations like FEMA, at least not until there are problems. The Arizona Republic has this article about the Governor ordering a review of bridges in Arizona. This is the part of government that few politicians or activists get excited about, but it is one of the most important functions of government. When government is starved, things deteriorate and eventually have to be fixed. Waiting until things become critical is not good policy. Good government, in my opinion, is more about good management than nearly anything else. It is one of the things I like best about Governor Napolitano. I might disagree with her on policy occasionally, but at her core she understands what government must do right.

I applaud her for taking this opportunity to (I assume) try to extract more funds for maintaining our infrastructure from our goofy right-wing legislature. Note to legislature, I know it is more fun to argue about immigration or soldiers names being printed on t-shirts, but this is your real job.

There was also this article... This was also interesting...

Nanny State Run Amok...

This topic just makes me angry, so much so, that I find it hard to write about it. The Arizona Republic has this article about sexual harassment in elementary and middle schools. Of course our friend Andrew Thomas weighs in with his nutty puritanical two cents.

Have we really become a society that will not allow children to be children? Can we no longer react to the behavior of children in prudent manner that reflects the child's development? Why can't we accept that boys will be rambunctious at times without diagnosing them with ADHD? Are we so afraid of sexuality that we feel we must consider criminal sexual abuse charges for middle school boys "patting girls bottoms".

Kids test boundaries. They must be taught proper behavior, but this is not the way. I find this particular topic very discouraging for the future of our society. Children raised under these sorts of rules will make for very unusual citizens...

Thomas Watch: Andy One Note Strikes Again

It is pretty clear to me that many Republicans are too simplistic in their policy assessments. It is the "if you have a hammer everything looks like a nail" mentality. George Bush's answer to all economic problems? Tax cuts, of course. George Bush's answer to any foreign policy issue? Military action.

Our good friend Maricopa County Attorney Andrew Thomas has a similar problem. His solution to every problem is severe and more severe punishment. This article outlines the obvious mistreatment and neglect of three children by their mother who is also a vegan vegetarian. Her children were badly under nourished and from the looks of her, she was as well. When I look at this woman I see one thing, mental illness. Should she lose her children? Yes. Should she be punished? Arguably, yes. Should she go to jail for 30 years? No. She should get some jail time perhaps, but more importantly she should get treatment.

Our friend Andy, of course was very pleased with his ability to bully someone and ruin another life. He was also clearly upset when the judge suggested that the clemency board might commute her sentence.

In the end, this is just bad policy and a bad use of resources. I don't know about you, but I am not sure reserving a jail bed for this woman for the next thirty years is really the best use of limited prison resources or a just punishment for that matter.

Hey Andy, how about putting away more of those gang members that are running amok in Phoenix? I would much rather put this woman away for a year and divert the cost of the other 29 years to helping her children recover or give the money to CPS to make sure that this is less likely to happen again. Of course, that is a rational reaction to the problem.

Would You or I Get This Kind of Treatment?

The Maricopa Democratic Party sent this out today:

Everyone:
According to the Lake Havasu News-Herald, the lawyer who is deciding whether to charge Republican Representative Trish Groe with extreme DUI, despite her blowing a breathalyzer test score of 0.148 (twice the legal limit) still can't bring himself to do the right thing. The La Paz County Board of Supervisors hired lawyer Dennis Wilenchik (the same attorney who is defending Sheriff Joe Arpaio against Dan Saban's defamation lawsuit) who seems to be doing everything he can to drag his feet:

“We are still looking into the matter,” Wilenchik said. “I am diligently investigating into legal and factual matters that are important to all concerned and will do what we have to in order to do the right thing for the public and Ms. (Groe).”The comments made by the local readers are of a community screaming for justice. But how can there be justice when the deck is so clearly stacked in the Republican lawmaker's favor? So much for the Republican claim of respect for the law.
So even with lab reports that verify Groe's blood-alcohol level, this former Republican lobbyist continues to charge La Paz county tax payers $225/hour for his time and $175/hour for his support staff's time while he makes up his mind. He's already collect over $500,000 in fees defending Joe Arpaio, so what's a few more thousand amongst friends? So now we know there are at least two reasons for this to be drug out: soaking the taxpayers and skirting the law.
Follow the link and read the story. You'll be sickened and outraged.
http://www.havasunews.com/articles/2007/07/23/news/news03.txt

I wonder if you or I would get this kind of treatment. That is potentially pretty bad...

Independents Rising... The Democrats Did Pretty Well Too

This article from the East Valley Tribune goes over the rising trend of independent registration in Arizona. Once you get beyond the spin by both parties, I think they are all right. There are more independents because there is dissatisfaction with both parties. There are also a lot of Republicans that cannot bring themselves to register as Democrats, but don't identify with their party any longer. Also, Arizona has a very high percentage of new residents. When people move here they lose many of the ties that might have led them to register with one party or the other. This trend is not new however...

I am glad to the see the Democrats outpacing the Republicans in registration.

Mayor Phil "Lieberman" Gordon Dodges Bullet

The Arizona Republic has this article about Jarrett Maupin being kept off the ballot for insufficient signatures. I don't think Maupin has a realistic chance to defeat the Mayor, but he could cause embarrassment. There are a lot of Democrats who would vote for anyone but the mayor. The Mayor and his people want to rack up a huge victory in the Phoenix as a stepping stone to the governor's office. So, essentially Maupin is more a political problem than a threat.

Having said that, let me say to anyone that has a problem with the Mayor's people playing hardball with the signatures, tough and welcome to politics. As the saying goes, "Politics ain't beanbag."

No one would have a problem disqualifying a stupid ballot initiative or a Republican candidate in this manner. This is about having an organization that can collect enough signatures to keep it free of challenge. I have run signature collecting operations for various races and it is a lot of work to check every signature collector and signature, but it is what you do. I do not have sympathy for people that cannot follow the rules.

The simple fact is the Mayor has good campaign people. We need more like them in the Democratic Party, even if I don't like him as a candidate.

Thomas Watch: Is This a Good Idea or Not?

SO, our good friend Andrew Thomas, County Attorney for Maricopa County is at it again. The Arizona Capitol Times has this article about creating a court to try just death penalty cases. My natural inclination is to be against it because Andy is for it, but after a little thought I couldn't decide.

My one caveat is that Maricopa County should have to foot the bill completely. Other counties should not be forced to pony up for our county attorney's overzealous bloodlust.

Maybe defendants will have a better chance at a fair trial in a court designed for death penalty cases. Regardless, it made me think how uneven justice is in Arizona, if you get the death penalty in Maricopa for something that would get jail time in any other county.

Should county attorneys be elected? Is it a good idea to have a politician prosecuting people accused of crimes? I can see pros and cons with either system, but good ole Andy is the poster boy for appointing prosecutors rather than electing them.

Phil Gordon: Most Annoying Campaign Site Ever

I am making a point of checking out candidate sites. Today I decided to take a look at Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon's campaign site and I have to say (and I swear I am not biased because I think he is a sellout), it is the one of worst sites I have seen. It is difficult to use and confusing.

I see where they were trying to go. There are a lot of cool features like signing up for txt messages from the campaign. The problem is ill-conceived flash overkill. There are too many bells and whistles and not enough information.

I could not find a single page on what he intends to do in his second term. What a big crappy mess...

Checkout the mess http://www.philgordon.org/

Clean Elections Screws Up and Must Do Better

The East Valley Tribune has an article about the Arizona Clean Elections Commission under reporting their spending by $2 million. Before anyone gets any crazy ideas, they made a spreadsheet error. The individual items were correct, but the totals were wrong. Given that it was likely a stupid error, it is still unacceptable.

Clean Elections has many powerful enemies and as a result must be extremely careful. It is amazing to me that they do not have an auditor to ensure their numbers balance. This is unacceptable, they must do better...

Mesa is Like a Parasite

Special thanks to Arizona Congress Watch for pointing this out in the East Valley Tribune. I find it particularly amusing that tax experimentation and Grover Norquist play ground, Mesa Arizona is making up for its goofy, shortsighted and unrealistic governing strategy by getting money from the Feds. Do you think they will move the date for Tax Freedom Day up a few weeks for Mesa this year?

I feel sorry for Mesa because I know there is a large group of voters who live there that are not crazy, but unfortunately this is what one party rule brings...

Thomas Watch: Andy you are such a baby!

I love this article in today's Arizona Republic about Andy Thomas' whining about Rick Romley being pitched for the open position at the Veterans Administration under GWB. My favorite reason he gave for Rick Romley being unqualified?

Thomas cited many shortcomings in what he saw as Romley's qualifications,
ranging from his lavish spending on an annual report in his last year as county
attorney to the lack of voicemail in the office during Romley's 16-year reign to
the fact that "he has been both publicly and privately critical of me."

Who knew that voicemail was so important? You know what would really make someone unqualified for County Attorney? How about never trying a felony case? Oh, poor Andy cannot take criticism from a seasoned prosecutor... I have bad news for you Andy, many other Republicans are privately and publicly critical of you.

Hepatitis at Cheesecake Factory: There is a moral to this story

As many of you may have heard, there was an outbreak of hepatitis A at the Cheese Cake Factory in Phoenix. This got me to thinking about a couple of policy issues that people do not like to talk about rationally. The first issue is related to immigration. This is precisely why you don't want to cut off healthcare services to anyone. Obviously, a sizable portion of the restaurant industry is run with immigrant labor. Guess what, the people that make and serve your food make minimum wage, do not have health insurance and do not get paid time off (and that is the American citizens). Forcing immigrants underground is dangerous from a public health standpoint.

The second issue is the problem of every worker in the economy not having paid time off for illness (let alone recreation). I for one would be willing to pay a few more dollars for my pasta and cheesecake to insure that the person serving it could stay home with pay when they are sick. The simple fact is that many restaurant workers are a few days wages away from losing their apartment or car. Given the choice between working sick or giving up a day's salary, most people will work sick.

This is just another reason for universal healthcare and increased workers rights. Rather than spreading to costs to a few unlucky patrons, perhaps would should rationally spread the costs across our society...

Michael Nowakowski: No Friend to Payday Lenders

Just Sunday, I was saying that I would dig up more information on the District 7 Phoenix City Council race. Well, ask and ye shall receive.

As many of you know, I am no friend of the payday lending industry. I am happy to hear that payday lending is an issue in this race. From what I have read about Michael Nowakowski, he takes the issue pretty seriously. Here is some information from his website...

“As a member of City Council, I will fight to regulate payday loan centers and support measures that will restrict their proximity to residential neighborhoods. Moreover, I will support efforts at the state level to establish reasonable limits of interest rates and other regulations that address current predatory practices. Reforms that have been vigorously opposed by lobbyists for the payday loan industry.”

Follow through is always a problem in politics, but at least we are starting in the right place. His campaign is questioning Laura Pastor's bonafides on the issue Here and Here. I would suggest that everyone take this with the requisite grain of salt, but if it is true, it is troubling. I searched her campaign site, but could not find any information about her stand on payday lending.

I wonder what the Pastor Campaign's response is to the accusations? (Psst: ademlament@gmail.com )

Republican Coalition Falling Apart: Part 3

Thanks to Rum, Romanism and Rebellion for this scoop. If it turns out that Graf does run against the more moderate Carroll for Pima County supervisor, it just adds more fuel to the intra-party split. I am not familiar enough with the particulars of that district to make predictions, but I think Graf would probably have a tough time since it is not an off year race, but who knows...

Phoenix City Council District 7

I still don't have much information on this race. I am pretty familiar with the inner workings of Arizona politics, but cannot figure out why the different groups behind Laura Pastor and Michael Nowakowski lined up the way they did.

Basically, it looks like the unions (police, Fire and UFWC Arizona's Largest Union) have lined up behind Mr. Nowakowski while most of the liberal power players (Raul Grijalva, Representative Steve Gallardo, Representative Chad Campbell, Representative David Lujan, Representative Kyrsten Sinema, Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox) have lined up behind Ms. Pastor. Sure, Ms. Pastor has the backing of the AFL-CIO, but that is pretty empty these days. I am not sure whether it is troubling or interesting that Ms. Pastor has the backing of the Chamber of Commerce and the Realtors Association. They probably support her because they see her as the establishment candidate (or the most likely to win).

It is also interesting that AFSCME is not on either list. AFSCME represents workers in the city of Phoenix. In the end, the police and fire unions have the biggest vested interest in city races. They are arguably the best at influencing them.

I promise to start digging for information about the race this week...

Obama vs. Hillary

The most recent fight over Obama's statement in the last debate that he would meet with world leaders without reservations and Hillary's campaign attack, actually make me like Obama more than before. I have always been worried about Obama's ability to take a punch and hit back. Hillary's people if nothing else will be tough. My first priority in picking a candidate is that they cannot whither while under attack. The ideals of our party must be aggressively defended.

In the end, I like Hillary, but I would prefer any number of the other candidates. The fact that the Obama campaign is holding its own is a good sign.

On that note, please come and vote on which candidate you think is best for Arizona...

Should We Add a Supreme Court Justice?

Props to MoronInCharge (I am not insulting them, that is their name) at AZ Netroots for pointing out this article in the New York Times. I was not aware it was possible to change the number of justices on the Supreme Court. I am shocked that Bush Administration did not take advantage of this.

I reluctantly think that this should be reserved as a option if the court continues on its current course. I have to say that I am very reticent about opening this Pandora's box. After all, what is good for goose... If we do it after 2008, it is likely that Republicans will do the same in the future. I think if we choose this option, we have to be very careful. First, we should do no more than balance the court. This means only appointing one justice (which opens the possibility of ties). Two, anyone appointed would have to be universally respected and uncontroversial. I think our argument would be that Bush appointed radical judges and we want to appoint beloved (Insert justice here) to moderate the court.

What do you guys think?

In Defense of Harry Mitchell...

Robert Robb in the Arizona Republic wrote a little blurb about Mitchell's proposal on capital gains and the estate tax. I wrote about it here. He is critical of the expiration of the Bush tax cuts and the need for Harry Mitchell and Congress to off set them.

The bill also illustrates the foolishness of the budget off-set rules that Mitchell has supported.In reality, the Mitchell-Shays bill wouldn't reduce the federal government's current revenues much, if at all. However, since big increases in both capital gains and estate taxes are scheduled for 2011, under the current rules, the bill would require approximately $330 billion in other tax increases or spending decreases over 10 years, to offset its phantom "cost."

Robb tries to make it look like requiring offsets is a bad idea. It is not. Very simply the rules require new programs or new tax cuts to pay for themselves with spending cuts or tax increases in other areas. Only a tax cut and spend Republican could view that as a bad idea.

But let's get down to the real point, who created the situation where these tax cuts would expire? Why were they setup this way? The answer is easy, the Bush Administration did not want to admit the real long-term cost of their tax cuts, so devised the clever scheme to have them expire in ten years. That way they could set the costs much lower. Sure is it bad policy and disingenuous, but that is how the current batch of Republicans operate. Not only is it bad for our budget, but it is damaging to business. Most businesses that benefited from the cuts, I am sure appreciated the largess, but the cost of shifting regulation can be expensive. Continuity of regulation can be almost as economically beneficial as a tax cut.

So, once again Mr. Robb you only have yourself and your fellow tax cut and spend Republicans to explain for this bad policy. Not only did they not think through how to implement their policy from a budget standpoint, they also over-reached and will lose most of the gains that they desired.

Bill Richardson with 40% of the Vote in Arizona Poll?

OK, so the polling sample is really small for this particular poll of Arizona Voters. Add your opinion to the mix...

UPDATE: Bill Richardson is really kicking ass in the poll, but given the small sample, I am not sure it means much. I am really interested to see if he will have a leg up in the South West or if that is mostly hype from the old regional politics model. I think regional politics are become much less important especially in the South West where everyone has moved here fairly recently.

The Idea of Union Bullying Cracks Me Up...

For most people, when they think of union organizing, they think of something from a movie set in the time before the AFL (American Federation of Labor) and the CIO (Congress of Industrialized Organizations) were one organization. It was a time when the stakes were high and union organizing was a full contact activity. The employers used Pinkertons to crack skulls and unions fought back. It wasn't always pretty...

Guess what the world has changed... Most employers hire union busting lawyers and consultants. They wage legal and PR campaigns (not to mention firing workers) to achieve their goals. The unions employ a lot of fresh out of college organizers because they are the only people with the energy to work 80 hour weeks in what can be a thankless task.

There was this letter in the Arizona Republic today and it made me laugh... It also made me wonder who is this Steve Haegele character? I will go out on a limb here and guess he is probably not bagging groceries or ringing people up at the check out...

Whoops, The Report was Only Off by $700 million?

Here is an article buried in the Arizona Republic about how the report from the Udall institute sites by Robert Robb here was not just 'revised' a little.

University of Arizona researchers understated the amount of state taxes
generated by immigrants by more than $700 million in a study released July 11,
they said Friday.

This still doesn't take into account the other economic impacts I site here. To me, this shows two things: One, how difficult it is to measure the economic impact of a large group of people. Two, everyone should be sceptical of data cited anywhere to support a political agenda (including here, Hell, especially here).

Graffiti in Phoenix Getting Better?

Here is an article about the Graffiti Busters program in Phoenix. I have had personal experience with them and they are pretty good. Unfortunately, we need about 10 crews not two. In my past four years living in Phoenix, the graffiti has gotten viably worse. The expense of adding additional crews cannot be that great in the overall city budget.

Fighting this amounts to a war of attrition that can probably never be won, but we still need to fight it aggressively. I think their goal should be to paint over graffiti within 24 hours. City Hall needs to step up...

Come and Vote for President...

I put up this poll a couple of days ago and so far it is a tie between undecided and Richardson. I am the undecided vote... Also, Joe Lieberman is in a three way tie for last place with my dog, an ant I stepped on and a rock I found in the desert. I assume the results are not Representative, but then what do I know.

Please come and vote... I am really curious what the netroots in Arizona think of the candidates.

Clean Election: Still under assault...

Here is an article from yesterday Arizona Republic about the Clean Elections System and the latest challenge to the law. The fundies in the Republican Party really have a problem with Clean Elections because it frees candidates from having to kiss their rings to get money. It also emphasizes grass roots organization over money. So far, they have been wholly unsuccessful at challenging the law and I am not sure that will change.

Thomas Watch: How does he sleep at night?

So, Andy is at it again, trying to kill people. Here is the article from the East Valley Tribune. In an age when many death row inmates are being exonerated by DNA evidence, how can speeding up the death penalty be morally defensible? Andrew Thomas is a johnny one note, who's only objective seems to be subverting justice and the constitution in the name of trying to elected governor.

I have been asking around for about a year for someone, anyone decent who will run against him in 2008. I am not hearing anything encouraging. If I was a lawyer, I think I would run against him. We have to stop Andrew Thomas from becoming Governor of Arizona and that means keeping him from being reelected as County Attorney.

This FBI case outlines the problems with overzealous prosecution.

Phoenix's Changing Neighborhoods

This article from the New Times about the changes happening in the Sunnyslope neighborhood is pretty interesting. I have lived in Phoenix proper for about 4 years and have seen the changes in my dodgy blighted neighborhood. My neighborhood is still going through a lot of changes. It is an interesting mix of old residents, Latinos, young hipsters, gays and young married couples.

For my good friends in Tucson who think Phoenix is one giant nondescript blob of a strip mall, it is time to clear the visions of Mesa out of your head and come see what is going on in the capital.

The arts district has been vibrant for years and BTW one of the biggest in the country. Good restaurants are popping up everyday and houses are still relatively cheap. The light rail will be operating in about a year and the new ASU campus is on its way.

For the uninitiated here are a few of my favorites:

1. For the arts: http://www.artlinkphoenix.com/
2. Best Coffee: http://www.luxcoffee.com/ (Great coffee and free wifi)
3. Best food: http://www.pizzeriabianco.com/pane/index.html (I think Pane Bianco is better than Pizzaria Bianco, which is supposed to be one of the best pizza places in the country. The sandwiches at Pane Bianco are some the best things I have ever eaten. You should eat here about six or seven times because everything is good.)
4. Best Food: http://www.lagrandeorangegrocery.com/ (The food is great, although the Yuppie clientele can be a little annoying at times. Try the poached eggs with prosciutto)
5. Best Food: http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&um=1&q=fate&near=Phoenix,+AZ&fb=1&view=text&latlng=33457685,-112068735,2842730746124692367 (Fate is great Asian food. It is a mix of different styles and all of them good)

Enjoy...

Here's to Phoenix my beloved home... Cheers

Mitchell Trying to Get Reelected

Harry Mitchell is in a tough district and is clearly trying to get reelected. The East Vally Tribune has an article about the bill the recently elected Democratic Congressman from Arizona has proposed.

I think in someways it is a good proposal. I have wondered for a while why the estate tax is not graduated. There are two problem that I see, one the proposal is DOA and two, we need the money. I know it is not popular to talk about, but the Federal Government is headed towards bankruptcy. Our third largest expenditure is the interest on the federal debt around $300 Billion a year. The Bush administration has made this problem much worse with their tax-cut and spend policies. In the end, we may not like tax increases and probable cuts in services, but they are better than insolvency.

The United States public debt, commonly called the national debt, gross federal debt or U.S. government debt, is the amount of money owed by the United States federal government to creditors who hold U.S. Debt Instruments. As of the end of 2006, the total U.S. federal public debt was $4.9 trillion. This does not include the money owed by states, corporations, or individuals, nor does it include the money owed to Social Security beneficiaries in the future. If intragovernment debt obligations are included, the debt figure rises to $8.7 trillion. If unfunded future obligations are added (i.e. Medicare and Social Security) this figure rises dramatically to a total of $59.1 Trillion [1].
In 2005 the public debt was 64.7% of GDP. According to the CIA's World Factbook, this meant that the U.S. public debt was the 35th largest in the world by percentage of GDP.[2] [3]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt

This is the issue that keeps me up at night...

The Starve the Government Crowd Strikes Again

I wrote about this ballot initiative last week. Here is what really bugs me about trying to freeze property taxes (beyond the mess it has made in California), Arizona is a pretty nice place to live. I have lived in many other states and cities and Arizona despite all of the complaints is pretty well run and efficient. I know it is hard to believe... Sure, Arizona has its problems, but we have ok government services in the cities and we have relatively low taxes. The problem here is the anti-tax crowd really wants no taxes and seems to be rather delusional about the affect. I rather naively prefer an honest debate. Here is the problem, perhaps one of the bigger problems with our system, taxes are divorced from services.

It is a problem when someone proposes a tax cut for property taxes and many voters do not know where the money goes? All they know, is that they are financially squeezed and need some relief. I think a lot more people would be ok with their tax bill (state and local, not federal) or at least make more informed decisions, if they actually had a better idea of what their money buys. I leave out Federal because frankly the Federal Government is a financial mess. I blame both parties for that and hope that some of that will change under a Democratic President and Congress.

Should all ballot initiatives proposing tax cuts be require to have more information about their impact? If a tax is earmarked for certain activities, should that earmark be listed, so voters can more easily make an informed decision? In the end, I think most voters will vote for more services and lower taxes at the same time because the cost of services and taxes required to pay for them are not connected...

Spiffing up the place

I made some significant look and feel changes. I am not sure I like it better yet... I do like to poll and the lefty blogs feed. I have been meaning to do some of these things for a while.

Let me know what you think.

Robert Robb Sure Complains A Lot...

I know I pick on Robb a lot, but I just can't help myself. The truth is that he is more reasonable than most of the columnists at the Arizona Republic. Making fun of most their columnists is not worth the time... Here is his latest column.

In his latest column, he basically complains about the government being, well the government. The simple fact is, for those of you that don't know, the government does a lot of boring stuff. Most of what he outlines is the stuff that government actually does right. They regulate various professions and study problems. Well, we wouldn't want the government to study things :). I get his point, but come-on let's call this what it is, you are a Republican that doesn't like government. You see what you want to see...

I hate to break it too all of you conservatives out there, but big business acts in a very similar way. Work at a fortune 500 company for a few years and see how much time you spend in special committee meetings, conference calls studying problems and endlessly discussing things. It is the reality of large organizations...

One of the things that I find particularly galling is how most people understand so little about the things they desperately oppose. You should read Max Weber and his thoughts on bureaucracy. The simple fact is that government does some things well (and it changes from organization to organization) and not others. It is no different than any other organization in that is goes through cycles of increased efficiency and decreased efficiency. It goes through cycles of innovation and reform and has times of stagnation.

One of the biggest problems in government is the lack of understanding on the part of public officials. I read this book years ago that has case studies of this exact problem (I wish I could remember the name). Basically, you have a professional class that actually runs the government, but every 18 months or so, they have to deal with a political appointee who generally has very little experience and no institutional memory. It makes it particularly difficult to run things efficiently. The result all too often is a repeat of many of the same mistakes. Imagine if your boss changed every 18 months, was very young, inexperienced and felt that they had all answers.

I know I am generalizing, but this is true for many departments at all levels of government.

I Never Thought I would Agree with Wiers, but...

This is another chapter in the Flores saga over English learners funding. What is interesting here is that the judge is trying to hold Jim Wiers and Tim Bee in contempt for not complying with a court order. While I think we should fully fund under the Flores law suit, I am not sure I agree with the judge. I am uncomfortable with the judiciary finding an individual legislator in contempt. I would like to read the actual order to see the judge's reasoning.

Note to the goof balls that run our legislature, there is an easy way out... Fund the english language learning program. It is funny how people against immigration site not learning english as one of their primary concerns, but don't want to fund the program that would most quickly teach kids english.

Dropout Rate, Dropping...

This article in the Arizona Republic outlines the decrease in the dropout rate in AZ. My only question is why did it drop? I am always skeptical of these articles that don't specify the methods for the study or even try to hypothesize why this is happening. Here is to hoping they are right...

What ever happened to increasing the dropout age to 18? Does anyone know?

Here is more

Using Pictures on the Blog...

Does anyone have information on a legal way to post pictures related to stories? I would like to spruce things up a bit by including video and pictures occasionally. Any ideas?

Independent Judiciary Must Be Defended

The Arizona Republic has this article about Arizona's own Sandra Day O'Connor's address to the National Governors association. Our system of government is under assault by the current incarnation of the Republican Party. The President basically ignores the other two branches and at the state level the Judiciary is under constant assault.

I think defending our form of government should become a plank of the Democratic Party platform. What is more American than our form of government? The Constitution is important, separation of powers is important and freedom is important. The best way to fight terrorism is not by destroying our form of government or by trading freedom for a false sense of security, it is to give would be terrorists our middle finger and telling them that no matter what they do, it will not change the way we choose to live.

Large portions of the Republican base were built on hatred for the judiciary, starting with Roe v. Wade. Unfortunately, that wing of the party does not care to protect our system from their ideology. They very simple want to get their way by any means. Our party must stand up for our way life and our form of constitutional government.

UPDATE: There is also this story about O'Connor. We definitely need more civics education....

The Debate: Who is Best for Arizona?

If you did not watch the debate, you should. It was easily the best presidential debate I have ever seen. I am a political junkie, but even I have trouble listening to their ridiculous over rehearsed answers. Don't get me wrong, there are still plenty of over rehearsed answers, but the format is really good. The debate comes on again today on CNN.

Here is my take, I think most of the candidates did incredibly well. I am undecided. I had previously been trying to decide between Obama and Edwards. After the debate, I am having a more difficult time. I am now more open to Hilary, Dodd and Richardson. My decision has gotten harder, but I don't mind. I really like our candidates. I even found Gravel rather entertaining in a Ross Perot sort of way...

So, who is best Arizona? Who is best for the country? Please leave comments...

Just them Vote Eddie Part 2: Union Innovation

There was this editorial on Wed in our ever biased Arizona Republic. What I think is interesting about this is how unions are always criticized for living in the past and being dinosaurs, but when they think of an innovative way to try to convince an employer to allow employees to vote, they are still criticized.

Do not let anyone confuse the issue... This is about voting pure and simple. Bashas doesn't not want to take the chance of letting their employees vote on having a union. It is a tactic used by many employers these days because the NLRB is toothless.

Robb, Please Tell the Whole Story...

Our good friend Robert Robb at the Arizona Republic latest column is about the economic impact of immigrants and undocumented workers. The reason I bring this up is not as much about immigration as it is the incorrect use of statistics. I have a problem with cherry picking data and brushing aside flaws to make an argument.

He makes a rather simplistic assessment full assertions to strengthen his argument, but makes no effort to backup anything with facts. He says:

I understand that the Udall study will be revised to increase the calculated tax contribution from illegal immigrants, but an argument can be made that the current figure is already overstated. It includes not only taxes paid directly by illegal residents but also the taxes paid by others supposedly as a result of their economic activities.

Additionally, education expenses are substantially understated.

Ok, great point, but where is the factual basis?

My other big problem beyond the assertions, is that the review is simplistic. The economics are much more complex than inputs and outputs for government services. In the end, immigrant labor amounts to a subsidy to those who benefit. Housing construction is less expensive, fruits and vegetables are cheaper to produce and so on. You cannot measure the impact of immigration without assessing its true economic impact.

What we are doing is transferring money from government coffers (greater use of government services by immigrants) and from the workers (in the form of depressed wages) to the profit margins of the companies (who use immigrant labor) and into the pockets of everyone who benefits from lower prices. What is bad about the system is that the benefits are unevenly distributed as are the costs. The system is great if you are building a new house or own a landscaping company, but really crappy if you are an unskilled laborer. I am not making a value judgement about immigration or immigrants just trying to state the reality.

As to the overall impact of immigrant labor, I think it is safe to say that we would survive without it. I would probably survive a gun shot to the shoulder or leg, but I prefer to not experience it. Furthermore, it is always easy to dismiss the pain involved with a policy that does not really affect you. How would you transition business dependant on the labor? What about landlords renting to the people you would deport? Would you deport someone with a child that is a US citizen? How about a husband and wife where one is a citizen and the other is not? What if you have a mixed marriage with a citizen and non-citizen with children who are citizens and the non-citizen is the primary bread winner for the family?

Can we get to point where we agree that immigration is not black and white, but many shades of grey?

The Rich Pay too Little in Taxes, Deficits Do Not Matter etc.

So, Bush and Romney's economic advisor thinks that:

...requiring the rich to pay more just because they are rich is little more
than officially sanctioned theft.

He did not say that, but quoted someone else saying it. It is clear to me he wanted to say it. In a time when the disparity between rich and poor is widening, middle class incomes are stagnant and globalization is breathing down our necks, it makes me quite angry to hear someone complain about increasing the top tax rate from 31 to 35%. The simple fact is this, as this inequality increases our society becomes less secure, more violent and worse for everyone.

I understand the inclination to say this is mine, I earned it and keep your hand off. I get it, but this is a larger societal issue. People have to feel that they have a reasonable chance at success and that cannot happen if you cannot get ahead. That cannot happen if people don't have a reasonable chance of buying a home, sending their kids to college and having health insurance. That cannot happen with most of our wealth concentrated among a few people.

We have crises looming over Medicare, deficits, social security and trade imbalance. None of these problems will be easily overcome.

Like it or not for the good of our society the rich must pay more in taxes.

Are Honeybees One of Many Canaries in the Coal Mine?

Slate has this article about honey bees. It makes me wonder what will wake people up. We are already starting to have seafood shortages. Honey bees are dying off. How many lakes and streams in the US have water that is safe to swim in or eat fish from? Or how about this article about the problem with a common chemical in plastics and connections to obesity?

I remember speaking to a bio chemist about 10 years ago on a plane about chemicals in the environment and their dangers. It was a frightening conversation... Basically, we are running a random uncontrolled experiment and we have no idea about the outcome. Are we going to burst into flames one day, probably not, but we will see lots strange things happening that we don't understand. We won't be able to solve many of these problems because of our lack of understanding. I don't want to be alarmist, but I do think we need a new paradigm for considering risks in our environment and pollution.

How do we setup a system where industry will cooperate in finding real answers to the potential dangers of their products? It also makes me wonder if our convenience culture is sustainable over the long term. There was also this interesting and I would argue related article in the Arizona Republic about swimming pools. I used to work in the pool industry and won't swim in a pool now. How will we continue to fill pools if our drought continues? How safe is the chemical brew that people swim in?

I just don't see this as a partisan issue anymore. In the end, we have to find a rational way to deal with the environmental issues that will face us in the future. We have to find ways to avoid being overly punitive while still protecting ourselves. Overall, I think it is a tough sell, but one that is necessary.

The Republican Coalition is Falling Apart: Part 2

Last week, I wrote a post about the Republican Party's troubles because of immigration. I had a couple of people (one that posted) write me with quizzical responses. Here is another example of the R's coalition breakdown in Arizona. Now we have Russel Pierce considering a challenge to Jeff Flake. It is not like Flake is some sort of liberal. He is a hard-core conservative Republican. Also, think back to the CD 8 race last year with Randy Graf and Gabby Giffords. The civil war is on...

Immigration is an unsolvable problem for the Republicans. Either way they are likely to lose. The simple fact is that parties go through periodic restructuring of their underlying coalitions. The Democratic Party saw this happen starting in 1980 and ending 1994 with loss of many working class white voters and the South. I would argue that Republicans are moving through this kind of transition. They have lost most the North East and the Mountain West is trending away from them. It will be impossible to build a coalition with hard-core anti-immigration activists, Wall Street Journal Republicans and Hispanics. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

Earmarks: Saint McCain and Flake need to wakeup

I have some respect for Jeff Flake and his crusade against earmarks and government waste. First and foremost, I believe in fiscal prudence by the government. I think we should be required to have a balanced budget every year. The problem I have with Flake and McCain's stand is that their constituents pay taxes to the Federal Government and it the job of every Congressman and Senator to bring some of that money home in the form of reasonable projects (I think we all know reasonable when we see it).

There is a big difference between a bridge to no where and securing additional transportation funding for a growing state like Arizona. The East Valley Tribune has this article. The money quote is from our good friend Harry Mitchell:

Historically, Arizona has not received a fair share of federal funding on several fronts, including money for highway and wastewater infrastructure, Mitchell said. In some instances, some federal funding formulas are based on U.S. Census Bureau counts that are decades old and don’t reflect Arizona’s population growth. As a result, Arizonans pay more into federal tax accounts than they receive in benefits.“Think about this: Arizona has been a donor state,” said Mitchell, whose 5th Congressional District includes Tempe, Scottsdale, Ahwatukee Foothills, Fountain Hills and part of Mesa.“In terms of highway funds, we get 92 cents back on every dollar,” he continued. “That’s not right. Now, you can call it an earmark or not. But I think the very fact that there are projects that are going to be funded, the money is there, that the residents of Arizona have as much right to get some of their tax dollars back as residents of any other state.”

Redistricting Schools: Good? Bad?

So, there is an effort afoot in the Maricopa to merge school districts. The idea is to create more efficient and cost effective districts, essentially to get more money in classrooms and pay teachers more. Please don't take my explanation as an endorsement, I am not sure where I stand. The Arizona Republic has this article in today's paper. When I first read about this it sounded like a good idea at least in theory. After reading the article today, I am not so sure... Teachers oppose it and parents from both poor and wealthier districts oppose it. It specifically talks about the Madison district, which is excellent and some of the poorer districts (Balz, Wilson, etc). Their reasoning seems quite sound. That is enough to give me pause.

Plus, why is the head of a financial company leading this effort? What expertise could he possible have when it comes to education? Can anyone out there shed more light on all of this? Do we really want greater efficiency at the cost of disrupting districts that are currently excelling?

The Republican Coalition is Falling Apart

The Arizona Republic has a great article about how business interests (that almost always support Republicans) are creating political action committees to go after the very Republicans who passed the employer sanctions law. It is certainly a good thing for us...

You reap what you sow...

Robert Robb has an interesting column in the Arizona Republic today about some particularly bad Supreme Court and Appeals Court decisions. To me, Robb seems like a fairly reasonable guy and I certainly agree with his assessment, but he is partly responsible for the very things he is criticizing. He is not a neocon whack job, but he is a good Republican who has supported the President every step of the way. Here is the difference between myself and Mr. Robb, I love my country more than my party and I would not support appointing judges willing to gut our constitutional rights. To me it would not matter how politically advantageous it would be for my side.

Fundamentally, we have to be about something as a country. I have always felt that freedom was central to that something. I am not talking about bumper sticker notions of freedom. Like we support the troops because they are fighting for freedom. No, I am talking about supporting the constitutional rights of someone you loath. I would fight just as hard to ensure that Pat Robertson's free speech rights were protected as my own.

That is the problem with support for the current administration, it transcends party. The Bush Administration is radical and has view of our country that is truly different. The have undermined many of our most valued institutions (the military, the constitution, separation of powers, accountability, separation of Church and State and on and on).

It is too bad that the Republican Party is no longer the party of Mr. Robb or Barry Goldwater for that matter... It is time for Republicans who believe in the key pieces of our Constitional Republic to say enough is enough. It is time to isolate and marginalize this President to the point where he can do no more harm.

Come on Guys, Really, You Didn't Read the Bill?

I wrote about this stupid bill that passed the Arizona Legislature a while back. I understand the sentiment behind not allowing soldiers names to be used without their families' permission. The simple fact is that legislators at their best are supposed to protect our freedoms even when it might be unpopular. I don't expect the soldier's family to be rational when they just lost a loved one, but legislators should take a longer view.


A bill aimed at trying to silence one guy making t-shirts should make anyone pause. Clearly no matter how the bill was put together, it was a violation of the First Amendment. The simple fact is that you all voted for it because you were afraid not to. I get that, it is political reality, but don't give me the babe in the woods act about not knowing what is in the bill. You cannot have it both ways (I am talking to you Prezelski and Sinema in particular), I would expect you to know better. BTW -- I know you guys don't read the bills, but really, admitting it in the newspaper? Really disappointing...

Wade Leaving State Chair Position: Good For All the Right Reasons

I know a lot of the activist community was upset by Waid's stint as party chair, but I have to say that for the most part I wasn't one of them. This article from the Arizona Republic goes into the details of why he is leaving.

Here is how I see things, the State Party is in good shape. We picked up a handful of leg seats, reelected the Governor, AG and picked up two Congressional seats. While Wade cannot claim credit for all of that, I feel certain that without a well run party none of it would have happened (especially at the Leg.).

In the end, he leaves the party in good shape and we get a top-notch consulting firm. Tom Ziemba and David Wade are both very good political people and the state is lacking a really strong Democratic Consulting firm. So, I think this is good for everyone...

Moore and Gupta: Welcome to Mainstream Journalism

There has been a lot of hullabaloo in the blogosphere about CNN's Gupta criticizing Michael Moore's Sicko. The video is here. I don't really see what everyone one is upset about. Yes, it was mildly unfair and had a factual mistake, but lets face it, on the whole this story was probably above average in fairness and accuracy. That doesn't speak very well for the state of journalism, but this was no hit piece. This was just your garden variety slightly snarky, smug, mostly factual report... They couldn't say that Sicko was factual, what kind of story would that be? ;)

Where is Nancy Reagan when you need her?

You have to be kidding, Just Say No, Kids... Seriously, is this the best Arizona can do?

Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid...

The local (probably helped by National) anti-tax groups in Arizona have filed this initiative to limit property taxes. So, what is the problem? After all, nobody likes paying property taxes. There are a couple of problems: 1. It did not help California keep property taxes under control. Instead of costs being evenly distributed, they are now heaped on new home owners. When my wife sold her house in California she was paying $1100 a quarter. I am not kidding... Her taxes were outrageous. The fact is that newly developed areas are limited in their property taxing authority, so they add other assessments and fees to make up for it. The net result is that when you buy a new house you get lots of fees that older home owners avoid. It is like rent control, great if your rent is controlled, but really sucky if it is not. 2. The California educational system was severely hurt by their property tax changes. 3. This is why we have elections. Why should someone tell me or my community the level of services that can be provided. Our system is already self-regulating. If taxes get out of control, we can defeat the people responsible and roll back assessments. Some municipalities want more services than others. They will have higher taxes than other communities.

Also, Arizona has really low property taxes. I have relatives in Florida that were amazed and jealous when I told them what I pay in property taxes. Furthermore, if you read the article above, we already have several laws or constitutional amendments dealing with this issue. The fact is that this a solution seeking a problem, not the other way around.

I wish I knew what was being done to defeat this... What a bad idea.

Pope Declares One True Church, Can You Guess Which One?

I have to preface this by saying that I was born and baptised Catholic. In fact, I was supposed to be a priest (and those of you out there that know me, know that I find that funny too). I am now a fairly ardent (albeit still open minded) atheist. At any rate, the older I get the more I just find this kind of stuff amusing.

The AP article is here. So, the Pope has declared the Church that he is head of the one true church? Imagine the controversy if he would have declared the Southern Baptist Convention the one true church.

David Cross has a great bit about how the connections between religion and D & D can be quite striking at times. Sorry all you religious people out there, but I don't know how you take this stuff seriously. UPDATE: Here is the David Cross link.

But what do I know? I am just a sarcastic lapsed Catholic.

The Senator from Louisiana visits a Hooker. Who could have guessed?

So, apparently David Vitter (R) Louisiana has been seeking the company of high dollar hookers in DC. It is unfortunate that Louisiana is one the few states that will probably just let it slide. I was really hoping for Joe Lieberman or John Kyl... Oh, well one can dream. The article is here

UFCW and Bashas: Eddie just let them vote

If I shopped at Bashas I would stop... (Sorry I don't have a Bashas nearby). This article from the Republic goes into some of what is going on. Basically, UFCW is trying to organize Bashas, Food City and AJ's and Bashas (the parent company) is being anti-union.

UFCW has decided to use other tactics to try to embarrass Bashas and apply pressure. Unfortunately, this is what union organizing has come to because the National Labor Relations board is a joke. At this point, there is almost no protection for workers wanting to organize. I know it seems simplistic, but why can't the workers at Bashas have an up or down vote on the Union without a lot of interference?

Bashas claims that workers don't want the union, so put your money where your mouth is, let them vote.

John McCain, Dead-ender?

Here is more evidence that Saint John may be going down. I must say that I have spent a lot of time looking at John McCain's campaign and wondering what the Hell they are thinking, apparently I am not the only one...

UPDATE --> This account is also intesting...

Lead, Crime and Rudy G

This article from the Washington Post goes into the links between lead poisoning and crime. What is so fascinating about it, besides bringing reality to some of Rudy Guiliani's claims about reducing crime in New York, is how the Guiliani people were so quick to dismiss what seems to be strong scientific work. I know they are in the midst of a political campaign and without Rudy's mythology on crime and 9/11 he has very little cache, but this is precisely the kind of information that policy makers should use to make policy decisions.

For instance, if we know that adolescents with a history of lead poisoning are much more likely to commit violent crime and older criminals that were exposed to lead are more likely to be recidivist criminals it should inform our policies towards those people. Maybe a history of serious lead poisoning should be considered in parole?

It just goes to show that being tough alone is not enough to fix crime problems, human behavior is much more complex. It also goes to show that toxins in our environment can have unforeseen affects that we should spend more time trying to pin point.

Too Obvious to Deny

While I was reading this article from the East Valley Tribune on the new employer sanctions law, two things came to mind. One, part of the sanctions law passed by the Arizona Legislature should have included a provision to punish employers who mistreat undocumented workers. I think one of the unintended consequence of this law will be to force workers further underground and lead to abuse of workers by unscrupulous employers.

The other idea is where my mixed feeling on immigration come in. Cheap labor is wrecking parts of the economy for a certain class of people in the US. The anger over immigration comes from a lot of sources, many of them unjustified. However, many of us on liberal side of the spectrum forget the affect immigration has on workers that are not college educated or highly skilled. This is a real problem...

There are many potential solutions: Provide easier access to education and skilled training programs, apply the minimum wage to undocumented workers, etc. The point is that if we want cheap labor, we must find ways to take care of our displaced fellow citizens. At the same time, we cannot tolerate racist, demonizing or inhumane treatment of immigrant laborers.

Oh, and one last thing, I am really sick of hearing that immigrants are doing the work that Americans do not want to do. I think this quote says it all...

The law could have a chilling effect on the state’s entire economy, warned Elliott Pollack, one of the state’s top economists. The law will certainly make it harder for the agricultural and hospitality industries that depend on illegal immigrants to fill jobs. This will force businesses to pay more for employees living here legally, he said. And that extra cost will be passed on to consumers.

Would that really be so bad?

Employer Sanctions and Law of Unintended Consequences

Here is an interesting article that gives details about the funding of the new employer sanctions law passed by the Arizona Legislature. I will give you one guess about whether our legislature properly funded the bill. Of course not... I know that many of you out there are against the legislation and I am frankly not sure myself, but here is the problem. Uneven enforcement of this type of law is worse than no enforcement especially in the hands of our good friend Andrew "I am nut" Thomas.

Here is the problem as I see it. Many businesses rightly or wrongly rely on immigrant labor. They are not likely to change their business practices without fear of a likely enforcement action. Imagine you own a business that relies on inexpensive labor to be competitive, you face a choice: comply with the law and see your business become less competitive or ignore the law and gamble on the lack of enforcement.

The lack of funding also sets the scene for selective enforcement. Imagine you live in a place where the Sheriff and the County Attorney care more about publicity than actual law enforcement. Add a County Attorney that wants to run for higher office. Mix in a couple of million dollars for enforcement of a law that affects 10% of our workforce and what is a likely outcome? A few unfortunate people (probably running small businesses) will feel the brunt of the law, will be marched out in front of the cameras (while the biggest offenders in the Wall Street Journal wing of the Republican Party laugh at the poor suckers without connections) and in the end, the law will not change behavior in any significant way.

It just goes to show that most Arizona Republicans are all flash and no substance...

The beginning of the end for Saint McCain?

Let the meltdown begin... Just goes to show how narrow the Republican Party has become and how long a memory activists can have... I have to say that McCain's strategy has seemed untenable to me for a while.

Phil Gordon: Arizona's Joe Lieberman

I have written about his before, but what is Phil Gordon thinking? This is the latest article outlining his questionable behavior. I think this quote sums up what is wrong with Phil:

"Mayor Gordon is an opportunist," said Dan O'Neil, state coordinator for Progressive Democrats of America. "He should change his ways, or join the other party."

Sadly, I think Phil just wants to be elected and will do anything to make sure it happens. Well, Joe, ah I mean Phil, there will be hard times when you run for Governor... Just remember that we told you so.

This is why Republican Government Theory Doesn't work...

I consider Gilbert, Arizona my special hobby. I don't know why I find it so fascinating, but I do. Gilbert could go several different ways: the Mesa model, the Chandler model or something else. The Mesa model is as little government as possible and a lot of right-wing think tank experimentation. It also includes a healthy dose all taxes are bad and people will always vote against them. BTW, Mesa is in very bad financial straights as a result of its policies and it is probably the ugliest valley suburb (they don't like zoning either).

Then there is Chandler, far from perfect, but well run. Chandler keeps their taxes relatively low, but not that much different from the rest of the valley. The one thing that separates Chandler from Mesa (they are both heavily Republican and right-wing) is that the City Council and Mayor are realistic about what cities need to provide for quality of life and for having a sustainable tax base. BTW, many political people in the East Valley refer to Chandler as the "People Republic of Chandler" because of their supposedly liberal policies, like having a property tax.

That leads me back to Gilbert. They are having a problem with the huge amount of trash being generated by their bulk pickup system. I think this is a good example of the problems with the governing theory that currently dominates the Republican Party.

How does a Republican solve the following problem without breaking orthodoxy: Too much trash costs the city too much money for pickup, storage and the long-term viability of landfills. Raising taxes to pay for the additional needs? We know the answer to that... All taxes are bad. OK, how about instituting more recycling and restricting what can be thrown out? We all know that is a bunch of whiny tree hugger non-sense. How about a user fee? User fees are just a fancy way of saying tax. That pretty much leaves you with cutting programs (either the trash pickup or some other cuts).

I hope that did not come across as overly simplistic, but I think you can see where this is going... Reality trumps theory often.

Presidential Primary Calendar, maybe a different scenerio?

So, everyone is grousing about the new primary setup . I have read the complaints in so many places that I cannot count them all. The operating theory is that we will have a few early primaries, then the big one and everything will be over after that... Really? I can see a distinctly different scenario as a possibility.

I have worked on enough campaigns to know how they are thinking right now. It is not rocket science to think that the top-tier and second-tier will start sifting through polling and look at their fundraising numbers and start choosing targets. I am not sure that Clinton or Obama with their vast sums of money can compete in a nation-wide primary.

Here is the possibility that I see. Imagine Edwards continues his current path and goes after Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina (wins 2 or 3). Obama goes after 5 or 6 states (wins say 4). Hillary competes everywhere and comes in second a lot (she still gets delegates in second) and leads the delegate count. I would not be surprised if Richardson won a couple... This could break out many ways, but over in a day is not the only one.

Conventional wisdom is politics is a funny thing, it is always right, well until it isn't...

Hedge Funds, why you should know more about them...

I know, I know, your eyes glaze over and you want to fall asleep when someone even mentions for the phrase hedge fund. I am sure you have heard it and most of you have no idea what they are and why they exist. While I am no expert, I will do my best to explain what they do and why they are important. Basically, hedge funds are largely unregulated investment vehicles used by large investors (investment banks, the super rich and such).

The good part is that they can make huge amounts of money, but they can also be very risky. Here is the problem, there is an incentive for many of these institutions to invest in hedge funds because of their very large returns. This increases risk in four ways: 1. Many of these investments are not well understood even by the investors. There is a huge amount of risk to our financial system by mainstream institutions being too heavily invested (think 1920's stock market crash). 2. The vast amounts of money and secretive nature make them more conducive to market manipulation. 3. They are basically unregulated. 4. There is pressure from institution to institution to be competitive. If one bank sees a 20% return a year over 5 years by using a risky hedge fund, it becomes increasingly difficult for other institutions to continue to invest more conservatively.

The other problem is that they are running out of large investors to invest in their funds and are starting to look at upper middle class people to fuel continued growth. This presents huge problems...

Here is the key, don't think of hedge funds like a mutual fund. They can literally invest in anything, which means they can invest in things like subprime mortgages (AZ Republic). Look at the example of Conseco Insurance which went bankrupt because of risky subprime lending(although this is not hedge fund related per se, it shows the danger of these schemes). Of course, who can forget when Orange County California went bankrupt because of derivitives investing, which is used in a lot of hedge funds. How about the case of Metallgesellschaft AG of Germany and Barings PLC of England both losing over a billion dollars in the derivatives market in a very short time. At Barings, the trader hid the loses for fear of losing his job... derivatives can be highly profitable, but extremely risky. Derivatives can be almost anything and are frequently so complex that you need a math professor to explain them (seriously...).

This quote from the AZ Republic article sums another area of risk:

"Wall Street firms and money center banks financed the leveraging up of hedge funds that purchased the exotic and illiquid fixed-income securities produced by the very same Wall Street firms and money center banks," he said in a note to
clients.Given the already apparent fallout in the subprime mortgage market, lending standards have shot up and the market for such investments has deteriorated. But that won't erase what already is out there, which is ugly and could get worse.

At the heart of this is a difference of opinion between the belief that market is inherently rational or whether society has an interest in protecting the public from some of the irrational behaviour that crops up from time to time that could disproportionally hurt unsuspecting members of the public. There is also the issue of bailouts paid with tax dollars that would be sought after a meltdown.

There are a few things here that I think are germane: 1. The market can be irrational in the short-term which can cause a lot of pain to the general public. We should do a cost/benefit when considering regulation of markets with a bias towards the public interest. 2. Industry cannot seek to kill regulation and expect bailouts when they lose a bet. 3. There is a national security aspect to this that is not being addressed. Many of these hedge funds are being heavily funded by people like the Saudis and the Chinese are entering the private equity market. Investment is good, but we should do our best to control risks to our economy.

That is it for my borefest of an entry...

Arizona is not last, WOO HOO!?!?!

I have a running joke about how every state I have lived in (4, so far) has been last in education (some at the same time). I am normally very skeptical of rankings for a variety of reasons:

1. News organization seem to be willfully ignorant of how statistics and data work.
2. Studies are at times willfully misleading.
3. People misconstrue or take studies out of context
4. News organizations only seem to cover the state ranking when we are near the top or near the bottom.

Having said all of that, these rankings for health care by state seem to be pretty good. Arizona is near the middle which is what I would expect... I still cannot believe that Arizona is last in anything (everybody knows the Alabama and Mississippi are last in everything, but literacy, life expectancy and church attendance, btw I am from the South so I reserve the right to make fun of my beloved home. Seriously, I kid Alabama and Mississippi, but I love Tuscaloosa and Gulf Port).

At any rate, if you are sick Hawaii seems like the place to be (it is probably the place to be no matter what).

Flores and why the Right are a bunch of hypocrites

The Arizona Republic has this article about the Flores case. I am not going to rail against the stupidity of the legislators over this case, although it is rail worthy. What struck me as I read this was how the right ignores reality and pushes toward hypocrisy.

For example, on teenage pregnancy they don't want sex education (where they actually teach about sex), they insist on abstinence only education (fantasy land). On abortion, for the most part the right-wing doesn't actually want to take actions that would decrease the number of abortions (like supporting children and single mothers or providing adequate birth control). Instead they just want abortions to stop (fantasy land). We are clearly losing the war in Iraq, but instead of admitting mistakes and adjusting (not now, 2 years ago), they just think they can will victory through some combination of getting tough, taking the gloves off, sending more troops or praying to Jesus (fantasy land). I could go on...

I know this idea of the right being divorced from reality is not new, but how do we as a community combat it (or explain it and understand it)? The petulance of our legislators is just another case of this divorce from reality. They want English to be the official language. They insist that immigrants are not doing enough to learn English, so what do they? Shut down adult language education and under fund programs for kids trying to learn English (don't even get me started on deporting 12 million people). They always say they want to run government like a business, but no business would operate this way and survive...

Trying to Save our 'Flagging' Educational System

This article in the Arizona Republic addresses the law passed by the legislature requiring all classrooms 7th grade and up to display the American flag, the Constitution and the Bill of Rights. So what is wrong with that you ask? Nothing really... The irony is that it was passed as an unfunded mandate. Arizona spends less per pupil than every state except Utah and now we have to spend money buying flags and documents for every classroom.

If this is so important, the state should pay for it. One other problem I have is rather than just displaying them, why not require civics classes every year through college graduation? I think it is that important...

Imagine a world where nearly every kid in high school could explain the intricacies of the electoral college or why the Fourth Amendment is important or even better what the courts have decided is the true meaning of the Second Amendment (btw there is no constitutional right to bear arms unless you are a well regulated militia). That is practically paradise ;)

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

There are many times that I wish I had more free time for research. This article from the Arizona Republic goes into a dubious on its face analysis of wage figures in and out of the Federal Government (they did not see it as dubious btw). Basically, the article compares salaries in the private sector (the entire private sector) against wages through the Feds. Surprisingly, with the help of the Heritage Foundation (wink, wink) they found that government employees make vastly more money than private sector workers.

On its face, this is wrong in sooo many ways. First, comparing the entire economy of an area to Federal employees is dubious at best because many lower level government jobs have been outsourced. There are very few janitors (or landscapers or dishwashers or cashiers...) working for the Federal Government. That is obviously not true for the private sector. Second, the article cherry picks areas around the country with highly skilled workers in professions like engineering and compares them to the whole economy.

More than half the workers in Martin County, Ind., for example, are employed at a Navy base that specializes in developing high-tech weaponry. The average $67,478 federal salary there is more than twice the average private-sector pay for that county.

Well I can't imagine why that would be?!?!?! I can't image a bunch of engineers and scientists making 67 k a year, that is unprecedented. So, should we pay them much less than that? Don't we need high-tech weaponry in places like, ahh I don't know, Iraq?

Well I have a counter example, I did an analysis of the salaries of a group of people belonging to the Business Roundtable. Interestingly, my analysis found that the average salary of their membership was 400 times the average salary of American citizen. Using that data to extrapolate out, all employees of private business must make vastly more than people in the private sector ;).

Interestingly, in the area where they claim to do job title to job title comparisons (which is extremely difficult to do BTW), they give hardly any information. Certainly not enough information to see how they calculated the salary information.

Here is my favorite quote:

Overall, high government salaries can be a drag on the economy if they attract rank-and-file workers who may be productive elsewhere, said Sherk of the Heritage Foundation."Wages are the way you allocate labor to what needs to get done," Sherk said. "But when government comes in and offers higher wages, then you mess up those economic signals. You direct workers to those occupations, to where their skills are less needed."

The idea that government does not need good people is ridiculous on its face. I want good and highly paid engineers working for the Army Corp of Engineers. I want qualified Project Managers and planners working for FEMA. Regardless of what these right-wing morons think, we need a government that works. Government is necessary for the long-term stability and well being of our nation. We are now competing in a world economy where government, labor and business communities are working hand in glove to make their countries more competitive. We cannot starve our government institutions and expect that we will continue to thrive with only 1/3 of the equation left.

There are lies, damn lies and statistics... And then there is analysis done by the Heritage Foundation.... How does kind of blatant propaganda make it into the newspaper?

Changing Clean Elections

This article in the Arizona Republic outlines some of the changes to the Clean Election law. I don't know about you, but I don't trust the legislature when it comes to making changes to the Clean Elections law. It is no secret that Republicans have wanted to kill the law since voters approved it.

However, (and this is all the information offered) it is supposed to increase the amount of money for state-wide candidates and increase the contribution limit. Without more information it is hard to determine whether this was done right, but both things were probably necessary.

Immigration or slavery?

This article from the Arizona Republic has an interesting bit about some nice white Canadians who might be asked to leave when their visas run out. The immigration issue is particularly hard to talk about and I usually like to avoid it.

I am torn about the issue. On one hand, I live in a neighborhood that is about 50% Hispanic and some are clearly undocumented. As far as I can tell, the ratio of jerk to nice is about like anywhere else.

The problem I have is that we should have a rational policy outlining both what we want and what is realistically possible. I don't think it is healthy for large scale immigration to happen quickly. It causes far too much stress on communities. How do we manage that and still treat the people coming here like human beings who deserve respect?

The really interesting thing in the article for me is the provision in the new immigration bill that makes immigration merit based. I think this is generally a good idea... We should steal the best and brightest from around the world whenever possible, but does that mean that the rest of the immigration will slow down? I don't see how.

Perhaps the scariest thing (this is where my title comes from) is how businesses want immigrants tied to them. I have seen this in action with H1B visas. It is not a good system. I worked with two employees on H1B visas at a previous job. They are what I would call high-end slaves. They are paid below market and made to work longer hours because they do not have options since their employer helped to establish their immigration status.

I cannot imagine how bad it will be for people picking fruit, working construction or processing chickens. The H1B workers are generally doing clerical or technical work. They have a low risk of injury even when they are exploited, but manual labor workers are put in real danger. There is also the problem of no paid time off for people working in kitchens or working with food of any kind. A lot of people get sick because of the poor line cook at Applebee's that doesn't get a sick day...

Tying workers to businesses is a bad idea... How about letting legal workers operate in the labor market like everyone else? Oh, I forgot that would mean businesses could not suppress wages artificially and leave plenty of cash for huge executive compensation packages.

A reader posted this link on H1B visas. This is fascinating and scary stuff. Everyone should take a look...

Republic Resident Robb Misguided toward Reid

I apologize for the alliteration, but I couldn't resist. So our resident dying breed moderate Republican, Robert Robb (Arizona Republic) wants to blame Reid for the failure of the immigration bill here. It is an interesting theory and by interesting I mean wrong and kind of stupid. Maybe (I don't want to go out on a limb here), it is the fact the Republicans are apoplectic about immigration in general? Maybe it is the fact Mr. Robb, that your party is filled with extremists that long ago stopped being rational actors intent on improving their country. Maybe, Reid would not have to pull the bill if a couple more Republican votes could be wrangled, but we all know the chances of that... Your party would rather operate in the world of myth: evolution is just a theory, global warming doesn't exist, deficits don't matter, we are winning the war in Iraq and we will just deport 12 million people because they are "law breakers". Your party's simplistic view of the world is the problem. Instead of attacking Harry Reid for trying to do the right thing and carry your President's water on the issue (because Republicans could not pass it during nearly six years of one party rule), maybe Mr. Robb you should look inward. The Republican Party is broken and to use the parlance of your party, bad for America. This was not always the case, but certainly is now...

Maybe there should be a law?

I found this amusing (I am clearly easily amused..) So, Jan Brewer's son was fooled into signing a petition for a ballot initiative under false pretenses. If the SoS's son cannot be educated about these things, maybe, just maybe there is a bigger problem or flaw in our system. Note to Jan, I know you are not the most adept public official, but this is what legislation (pronounced legis-lay-shun) was designed for... I know it is hard to believe but there are a group of people who can make these special rules that make it so people are punished when fraudulently collecting signatures.

Jan, we know you are trying your best over at that big office... Hang in there your term is almost over and you won't be elected Governor, so the confusion will soon end.

Just kidding...I kid the our Secretary of State, I am sure she is a fine woman (and not litigious).

Sorry for the Paris reference..

I apologize in advance for referring to Paris Hilton in anyway, but this article brought to mind some interesting thoughts.

I am outraged that she would get out of jail so quickly, but that is not my point. The thing that is interesting to me is how people are surprised that she would get out early. Why are they surprised? Are they surprised because of her celebrity and wealth or is there a disconnect between the people we elect and policies that they advocate and how the policies affect the criminal justice system. I suspect that most people assume she is getting special treatment and maybe she is, but from what I have read it is not unusual for people to only be incarcerated for 10 to 15 % of their sentence. California's system is overcrowded and she is not a signficant danger to anyone except maybe paparazzi.

What I am getting at, is that there is a big disconnect between ideology and reality. Everybody wants to be tough on crime (except criminals, I suspect), but what does that really mean from a policy perspective. There is a constant tension between mandatory minimum sentences, tougher sentencing guidelines, increases in the number of non-violent drug offenders in jail and finite funding for prisons.

Here is the problem, we cannot put everyone in jail because we cannot afford it. I am frustrated that voters and politicians don't think through the consequences of specific policy prescriptions. I used to think politicians knew better and were avoiding complexity for soundbites and getting relected, but increasingly I think that most politicians are ignorant of the true affects of their policies.

How many people know what percentage of our taxes dollars go to prison building? How does spending on prisons compare to educational spending? Would people rather keep a non-violent drug offender in jail or have more money per student for education (or a bigger tax cut for you supply siders out there).

As I always talk about, policies have consequences and there are always winners and losers. How do we install in the electorate the concept that many problems are intractable, like fighting terrorism or a war on drugs or poverty? We still must address these problems, but they cannot be solved, only managed. How do we bring realism to our policies? Is it even possible? Wow, this is a long way from Paris... Have a fun time in jail BTW...

Crime rate up, but I already knew that...

This article in the Arizona Republic presents both sides of the crime statistics debate. While it is good to see a newspaper that gives a balanced view of statistics, it has been my experience in the last year that crime in Phoenix is up. For me, (and yes this is anecdotal) the increase in crime is palatable.

My neighborhood and most of central Phoenix have seen major increases in small property crime and graffiti. I think these are the early signs of the increased gang activity mentioned in the article. Last week, I saw several instances of graffiti in the Arcadia and the Biltmore areas, both pretty swanky areas. My middle income neighborhood has seen a major increase in graffiti and small property crime. This has been a battle for several years. The graffiti goes up and city tries to paint over it. Unfortunately, the city seems to be falling behind. For the most part in previous years, Phoenix was able to get rid of graffiti in 48 hours. I am now seeing the same graffiti for weeks.

This is the kind of butter and butter issue that government needs to address and quickly. Studies have shown for sometime that one way to combat violent crime and property crime is to avoid blight. Well, this is a reelection year for the Phoenix Mayor and City Council, what is your plan? How do we address this issue before it gets worse?