Thomas Watch: Facts be damned, Andy knows its all the fault of the immigrants

Where is my mustache?

I ran across this article this morning about the validity of the link between immigration and crime (or lack thereof).

Andrew Thomas (the douche), never one to let facts get in the way of his political ambitions, dismisses the idea that mere facts would change his behavior. Here is a fun quote from the article:

On Friday, Thomas informed the Republic that he had discussed the question sufficiently in the past and later issued a statement. "The link between crime and illegal immigration is well known and was recognized by the 78 percent of Arizonans who voted for Proposition 100 in 2006," it read

Of course, the voters are never wrong... (unless they disagree with Andy, like with the Gay Marriage amendment that failed last election that he now chairs).

Thomas Watch: Andy trying to rewrite history

I ran across this great article in the Phoenix New Times about Andy Thomas editing his wikipedia page. At first I thought this was snark, albeit funny nerd snark, but alas no. It does appear that a pretty good case can be made for Andy editing his own wikipedia page (and trying to cleanse all negative information).

Come on Andy, after the Matt Bandy case you should realize that you cannot easily hide your activities on a computer.

Good times...

You know what helps during an economic downturn? Raising tuition...

Here we go again... Now the Maricopa Community College system has decided to raise tuition. An article in today's Arizona Republic goes over the proposed details. A nine % increase in tuition in a time when more people are at an economic disadvantage is just stupid.

I have an idea Joe...

Dear Sherriff Joe Arpaio,

How about instead of cutting visiting hours for attorneys trying to provide Constitutionally mandated services, you quit sending your staff to Honduras for junkets? I know it will not cover the difference, but it is a start. Or you could sell that silly tank?

Simple question

It has occurred to me over the years that the coverage of the both the East Valley Tribune and New Times are generally better than the Arizona Republic.

The East Valley Tribune seems to cover as many stories as the Republic, but seems to cover them better. The New Times covers few topics, but with greater depth. I am basing my assertion on articles that fall within areas that I am knowledgeable.

Here is my question, why? OR why not?

Vote for Matt Santos

I knew there was a reason I like Barack Obama...

Why the mortgage crisis is good in the longterm

I have written about the sub-prime mortgage crisis a few times. It is a fairly complex issue that touches on a large number of economic issues. The press seems to be primarily worried about the losses of big banks and secondarily concerned about the impact on individuals. These are both big concerns that must be part of any policy put forward.

Here is my feeling, banks and investors must feel the pain, but we cannot allow it to kill them. I am not saying that no financial institution should fail over this issue, but we should move to limit the damage to protect the overall economy. I think it is dangerous to do a complete bailout because it incentivizes bad behavior, but too many failures would damage our ability to recover.


On the individual side, we must take much the same approach. People that purchased homes that they could not afford cannot be let off the hook, they must feel some economic pain for their risky behavior. Having said that, we are talking about people and not institutions. People feel real pain and we should try to help where we can. I think a system should be put in place to facilitate the refinancing of homes that still have a value somewhere approximating the loan. This means that we should not extend refinancing to a home where we would loaning more than the actual value of the home. I think the refinancing help should go first (and perhaps only) to people with demonstrable income. Given that there will be large number of people left out, we should take steps to ease the transition of people who will lose their homes to foreclosure. Furthermore, there should be a method for people to refinance based on fraudulent activities by mortgage brokers.

The object in my mind is to avoid catastrophic economic damage and ease the societal instability of this sort of transition. By instability I mean the hopelessness and anger that will be experienced by many caught up in the process. There are few things in life more traumatic than losing one's home and this should never be far from the minds of the policy makers.

After the crisis is over, we need to think through how to change the systems, so that home ownership is achievable, but not without income and effort.

So, what is the silver lining here? Home prices... I think the inflation of home prices was ultimately bad for us as a society. Although my home has lost thousands of dollars in value, I am heartened by the idea that hard working people in Arizona will still have affordable housing available. Affordable housing is good for our economy...

Why do Thomas and Arpaio keep spending RICO funds on crap?

When will the worm turn on these two?

Imagine if Barack Obama had done this...

I am trying to imagine the feigned outrage we would see from Hillary Clinton if Barack Obama had defended this guy. While I can see the value of a lawyer aggressively advocating for their client, I cannot fathom doing this.

I am really glad that Hillary is not the likely nominee. So much for being fully vetted...

But there is a little-known episode Clinton doesn't mention in her standard campaign speech in which those two principles collided. In 1975, a 27-year-old Hillary Rodham, acting as a court-appointed attorney, attacked the credibility of a 12-year-old girl in mounting an aggressive defense for an indigent client accused of rape in Arkansas - using her child development background to help the defendant.

I would like to given HRC the benefit of the doubt of this one, but it makes me a little ill.

Hillary manufactures outrage over this?

Here is the little love tap from Obama's Campaign against Hillary Clinton and this.

Here is her reaction:



This strikes me as the reaction of someone about to lose an election...

Thomas watch: Andy picks up another possible opponent

I ran across this article about another possible challenger to Andrew Thomas (the Douche). I think at this point I am willing to pony up the maximum contribution to anyone with a chance to beat him.

I don't know much about Tim Nelson other than he is a former council for the Governor. Here’s to hoping that Andy has pissed off the Governor enough for her to pull out the stops on fundraising.

Thomas Watch: Andy we cannot afford to keep you

After the big screw up with New Times, the aggrieved have decided to sue. They are suing Sheriff Joe Arpaio (DimeBag) and Andrew Thomas (the douche). They are willing to settle for a measly $15 million. With our current budget shortfalls and the large number of past and likely future court judgments against the dynamic duo, I think it is time we let them go back to whence they came...

Bimbo eruption: McCain style

The New York Times is reporting about a possible relationship between John McCain and a lobbyist. Apparently his staff was concerned enough to try to keep her away from him in 2000. The lobbyist who is a female 29 years younger than him was showing up frequently during his first run for the White House. An "inappropriate" relationship between the two was independently confirmed by two former staff members.

I for one don't care if he was cheating on his wife, that after all is the Republican's cross to bear, but if he was doing special favors for a lobbyist that he was sleeping with that will hurt him pretty badly.

Stay tuned...

Why I haven't posted anything recently.

I was supposed to have started writing for this blog regularly six weeks ago or so, but haven't done much else except comment on the presidential primary. So naturally, here is a list of reasons I haven't been writing anything:

1. Working, volunteering, or meaning to do either for for the Arizona League of Conservation Voters and the Fair Districts campaign.

2. Watching with fascination the Tempe City Council races, and trying to decide how to cast three votes for four people-- Mark Mitchell, Corey Woods, Joel Navarro, and Rhett Wilson.

3. Studying. Sorry, nothing to link to.

4. Anticipating the next round of discussion on Wactivist about the Shadegg/McCain/etc saga.

5. Wondering how the creator of A Democrat's Lament gets the time to write posts that are worth reading. Also, who he is.

I'm looking at hitting the blog alot harder soon though, the development plans for Jackson and the immigration debate in Phoenix haven't been talked about enough.

Teamsters to endorse Obama!

Obama's union endorsements are piling up, SEIU, UFCW and now the Teamsters. This is significant because these are three of the largest, most effective and fastest growning Unions in the United States.

Here are the largest as of 2003:

NEA - National Education Association 2,679,396
SEIU - Service Employees International Union 1,464,007
UFCW - United Food & Commercial Workers International Union 1,380,507
IBT - International Brotherhood of Teamsters 1,350,000
AFSCME - American Federation of State, County & Municipal Employees 1,350,000

Arizona's budget woes (and bone-headed Republicanism)

The Republicans in the Arizona Legislature never cease to amaze me. There is this article in today's Arizona Republic about their plan for balancing the budget. Once again, the Republicans in the leg are united in their opposition to borrowing money through bonds to pay for school construction.

I thought our Republican friends believed that government should operate like a business? In case you Republicans don't know (apparently very few of you have worked outside of government or a think-tank), businesses borrow money for capital expenditures. The only reason that I can think of for their position is that they are seeking to make cuts that they don't have to restore because they hate government. How about thinking about how to best to serve our state and put your simplistic and idiotic ideology down for a minute? BTW -- Cutting money from the Department of Economic Security during a recession is pretty dumb, even for our Republican legislature.

This is my favorite part of the article:

Still, the plans drew some comment from people concerned about its priorities.Jack Confer showed up to tell lawmakers that they're reaching too far with their proposal to take $1 million from the budget of the state Osteopathic Board. "We have less than what (you're) asking to take from us," Confer said, noting the agency as of Tuesday had $964,000 in its account.

Classic... You cannot cut more than the agency is allocated...

Why Texas will be interesting

Texas will be a particularly interesting race between Clinton and Obama. As someone who has worked in Texas, I can say that Texas is probably wide open for either candidate. The latest polling shows Obama closing the gap, but I think it is not important except to show momentum. However, all of the polls are of likely voters. Any pollster who thinks he has figured out likely voters in Texas is probably wrong.

Here is why: Texas has abysmally low voter participation. The last time I looked at state-wide numbers for TX their participation level was less than 30%. Given the low participation, polling likely voters (voters with a history of voting in primaries) probably gives very little indication of the final result. The potential pool of voters is huge.

I don't think this necessarily favors either candidate. I would not be surprised if the either candidate has a blowout victory. The winner will be the candidate with the best turnout operation.

Obama has another big win!

Obama won Wisconsin and won big! Hawaii was even bigger, making it 10 in a row. With every win the math gets harder for Hillary Clinton. For HRC to pull it out, she has have blowout wins in Pennsylvania, Ohio and Texas. Texas is getting close... I think she will have to lose 2 out 3 for her to drop out. If she wins 2 out of 3, I think she continues on and starts all sorts of shenanigans to win at the convention.

The most unexpected part of this race for me is how HRC's campaign is so poorly run. I have to say that I did not expect that one bit. When this all started, I was not predisposed to HRC, but my one consolation if she got the nomination was that I thought she would have a very well campaign. I no longer believe that and I am starting to question her management skills. I am not trying to gloat, I am just surprised.

More on traffic cameras

There is this opinion piece in the Arizona Republic today imploring us "Quit the whining" about traffic cameras. It is funny that the argument that has been so effective at curtailing our freedoms as of late is the "if you are doing nothing wrong you have nothing to worry about".

I must admit that this justification is neat and logical. It is also the slippery slope that police states are based. After all, if the government can justify using traffic cameras based on this argument, why not cameras on every street corner? Why not allow the government to monitor your communications? After all, if you are not doing anything wrong, why would you worry? I am sure it would be effective crime prevention (until someone like Sherriff Joe or Andrew Thomas uses the power to go after political opponents).

Freedom from scrutiny has value. I am a law abiding citizen, but I still do not want to be under surveillance. I would like to live my life free from government's prying eyes. This really comes down to the type of society that we want. I am not so fearful of crime or a car accident that I am willing to give up privacy or anonymity to get it.

Clinton goes negative (Don't get mad get even...)

No, I am not talking about the little love tap about the debates that she started running. This is full on attack ad. It is sad that it has come to this, but I would not expect anything less from HRC.

Having said all of that, Obama supporters suck it up... Politics ain't beanbag. If the Obama Campaign is as good as I think they are they will quickly turn this to their advantage. Don't get angry get even. You should channel you energy in making calls, donating money or becoming a volunteer.

Here is the Obama response to the first ad:

Obama's response to the latest Clinton attack ad:

Hypocrisy is such a lonely word part II

Many of you know that yesterday I wrote about Mark Penn (Clinton Strategist and union Buster extraordinaire) and his connection to Exelon, a nuclear power company. The Clinton Campaign has been very critical of Obama's ties to the company and particularly a piece of legislation that the Clinton Campaign claims show Obama to be a sell-out. So, you might ask what else is there to say about this story? Well as it turns out, not only did Mark Penn's firm work to help them renew their license in New Jersey, the very legislation they were criticizing Barack Obama for helping to pass was co-sponsored by.... wait for it... Yes, Hillary Clinton herself.

One of Hillary Clinton’s strongest arguments for giving her the nomination is that she is a tough campaigner. Her campaign lately seems more mismanaged and flat-footed than tough.

The full extent of Phoenix's financial mess (Thanks again Phil!)

I cannot help but think this pretty much fatally wounds Phil Gordon's political career. The extent of the financial mismanagement in Phoenix is pretty staggering. Here are more details from the Arizona Republic. The finances are really bad when they are proposing police and fire cuts (3%). This is truly unacceptable... My hope is that many of the new city council members will take a hard look at the financial strategies used in the city.

This is my piece of advice to new city council members and staff. Educate yourself about how the budget works. Read the document, consult with the League of Cities, seek outside advice and don't take the city staff's word as gospel (although they are usually right). You need to inquire and be tough about why and how the city got into this predicament. Was it a bad revenue forecast? Were the projections too rosy? Will the city continue to use the same forecasting metrics and methodology? Did city elected officials ignore the advice of the staff and the City Manager or follow it? Find out what the fund balance is currently (if any). What was the fund balance for the last five years? Where was the fund balance spent if it is gone? What is the unrestricted fund balance (now and the last five years)? What is the city's plan for dealing with a cut in State Shared Revenue (this almost always happens when the state is running a deficit) Order the Municipal Budget and Finance Manual (and read it).

Email me if you have questions... I will happily answer them off the record.

Hypocrisy is such a lonely word

I am not sure how many of you are aware of the Clinton Campaigns criticism of Obama's alleged ties to Exelon, but it has been an attack from Hillary for a couple of weeks. Unfortunately for Hillary she employs Mark Penn union buster extraordinaire and all around anti-progressive scumbag. His firm also happens to have taken $4.3 million for doing PR work from... wait for it.... Yes, Exelon energy.

I am not trying to make this into something bigger than it is, but it is a little funny. All of the feigned outrage that Hillary has about Exelon apparently does not extend to her top strategist (or his anti-union activity). I guess things like this only matter when they are aimed at Obama. It is similar to how all of the states that Obama won don't matter for some reason or another. I am not sure why the Clinton Campaign thinks that black voters, caucus goers, and educated Democrats don't matter, but hey there are a lot of things about the Clinton Campaign I don't understand.

You need to read this my Conservative friends (and Liberal ones)

If you have ever wondered why I am an advocate of free education through college, this is it in a nutshell. It’s the economy stupid!

A skilled workforce creates jobs. Education is an investment that is essential to a good economy. I always thought that the ranks of economists were filled with Conservatives. Why is that Conservatives seem to ignore the teachings of their brethren?

Our policies should be less about ideology and more about creating the kind of world we wish to live. Who wants to live in a world of perfect conservative ideology with a bad economy and an uneducated populace (or perfect Liberal ideology with the same problems)?

To my Liberal friends, the government does not create jobs. The government can set the table with education and a solid infrastructure, but the people bring the meal. The quote below should be a cause of concern for everyone that loves this country.

The economic benefits of a college degree are huge and growing, but the proportion of American high school graduates who enroll in college has been stalled since the early '90s. In fact, the rate of college participation for African American and Hispanic high school graduates has actually been falling.

Other countries around the globe are narrowing the income gap with the United States in large part because they're sending an increasing proportion of their young people to college and we're not.

This is precisely why Arizona should be providing more funding for education and universities and not less. The cost of tuition should be falling toward zero, not going up to reach the national average. This is even more true when there is a government funding problem. If workers can easily acquire new skills during a recession, it will be shorter lived.

Hey hey ho ho, photo radar has got to go

This is my Libertarian streak coming out again, but I really think that photo radar should be eliminated state-wide. Here is an article from the East Valley Tribune about some of our kookier legislators opposing the Governor's move to have photo radar statewide.

I don't agree with their criticism of the Janet Napolitano, but I would like the use of all red light cameras and photo radar to be put before the voters. I have a real problem with government surveillance of innocent citizens. I understand all of the safety arguments... A police state is a very safe place, but I still don't want to live in one.

Wake up Arizona. You live in the desert

Ethan Miller / Getty Images file

I don't have very much commentary to add to this, but when will our leaders and the people living in Arizona start taking this seriously? Do we want to end up like Georgia where they have a couple of weeks of water left and their governor's answer is to pray for rain?

We need to make environmentalism and conservation part of our economic growth model. Arizona should become the world center for solar power generation and research as well as the center for water efficiency and reclamation technology.

Obama wins Virginia!

This is not a small victory... Look at the exit polls. He was dominant. Split the white vote 50/50. There was still a gender gap, but it was 55/45 (HRC/Obama) this time. The only troubling result is her strength in Western VA (which is a lot like West Virginia and parts of rural Ohio).

The campaign rolls on... 6 wins in a row...

UPDATE: One other thing that is cool. With 10% reporting, Obama has more votes than the entire Republican field. Oh, and Hillary also has more votes than the Republican front-runner (Huckabee at the moment) by 10,000 votes.

Blog changes...

I have given into the requests to drop comment moderating. I have dropped the requirement, but now users have to register to leave comments. Just for the record, the only reason I moderated comments is because I wanted to read them all...

This is pretty cool...

City of Phoenix facing big cuts... (Good Job Phil)

Good job Phil... We just passed a tax increase to pay for more police and fire, but we are facing huge cuts in city services and staff. Here is the article. I cannot help but think that this is pure incompetence. The simple fact is that a growing city like Phoenix should never have staff cuts. The worst case scenario for a well run and growing city should be a hiring freeze. The reason for this is the need to keep a balanced ratio of residents to city employees (for trash pickup, road maintenance, police, fire, graffiti control etc). People will continue to move to Phoenix at the same rate, but now not only will the city not add new employees thus falling behind the demand for basic services, but they will compound the problem by eliminating positions.

I have spent a lot of time around municipal finances in Arizona and there is almost never a reason for these sorts of cut backs except mismanagement. The only cities that are really in danger are those that are built out (like Tempe or have structure funding problems like Mesa), but Tempe is not having the problem because of good planning by making sure revenue streams were built up while their state shared revenue declined. At one point, Tempe (I have not checked lately) held huge reserves collected during good times to get them through these types of downturns. What is your excuse Phoenix?

Phoenix’s state shared revenue will continue to grow. Leaders in Phoenix (or voters) have not made dumb structural decisions like Mesa (like not a having a property tax). One culprit that immediately comes to my mind are the huge give backs given to retailers (or this one) to get them to locate in the city. Here is the problem: Wal-Mart will move here regardless, stop giving them tax money.

This whole thing is frustrating and unacceptable. Note to the Mayor: Please run for John Shadegg's seat (as a Republican).

Here is more information on state shared revenue:
http://www.azleg.state.az.us/briefs/Senate/STATE%20SHARED%20REVENUES.pdf
http://www.azleague.org/pdf/07shared_revenue.pdf

Shadegg out...

Apparently it sucks to be in the minority... Thanks George Bush!

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0211shadegg-race0211-ON.html

Obama, the nomination and local coverage

I have been thinking a lot about what Obama has to do to win the nomination before the convention. This post from Kos crystallized my thinking on the subject: Obama needs to win all three contests tomorrow. After that, he must win 2 out of 3 of the following Texas, Pennsylvania and Ohio. In addition to that, he must win a super majority of these contests Hawaii, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota. The other thing that must happen, he must win a majority of the popular vote.

I know that sounds unfair, but I think it is the reality. He must win such a convincing victory that super delegates will see the writing on the wall and even the Clintons will accept that they are beaten.

My last topic for the day is an apology about my lack of local coverage as of late. I put up two new local posts last night (yes, McCain counts as local). It is hard for a political junkie to not write about the presidential race even though there are many local issues that need coverage. I will do better, I promise.

Gun nuts

I don't get the gun nuts in the legislature nor do I get the gun lobby generally. Here is an article from the Arizona Republic about guns in restaurants. This seems to be the "gun in..." de jour at the moment. Previously, we had guns in churches, schools and airplanes.

Now before you NRA people start coming after me as some sort of Liberal who doesn't get gun culture. I own a gun. I learned to shoot when I was nine. I grew up hunting deer and in the home of a gun collecting lifetime NRA member. BTW -- He resended his membership when they started with all of the scare tactics about "jack booted thugs" and what not.

Here is the thing that was instilled in me from the very beginning. When it comes to guns, safety comes first. It is not safe to mix alcohol and guns. Most of all you don't put other people in danger because of your behavior. If in doubt, you don't need it.

My problem is this... If a police officer or someone from the military (with proper training) wanted to bring a gun into a bar or restaurant, I could probably live with that. The problem, like it or not is that a very large number of the people who own guns do not use proper safety nor have they been properly trained. They are in a word, dangerous...

Why Republicans hate McCain (think Lieberman)

I had a really interesting conversation with a Republican friend of mine about John McCain. He was positively dismayed that McCain was headed toward the nomination. I am not a fan of McCain for a variety of reasons, primarily because he is just a plain old conservative. There is very little about him that is maverick, unless you count the high level of regular press access on his bus.

What was his answer: Why do you hate Lieberman? His answer put it all into perspective for me. Republicans see McCain as a guy that gives us cover. He may not break with his party very often, but when he does, it gets in their craw as much for what he does as well as the self-righteous way he does it. I would guess Lieberman votes with the Dems as often as the McCain does with Republicans.

Why am I mentioning this? Well, the next time one of your Republican friends is railing against their nominee, have sympathy. Just imagine if Joementum himself was our nominee. Instead, we get to choose between two candidates who represent us pretty well (even if Obama is better).

Update: Lieberman is way more annoying than McCain

This might be the weirdest thing I have ever seen...

I don't even know what to say about this... Just read it.

Obama does better than expected (Cali still out)

I am impressed by the number of states won by Obama. He basically won in every region with both big and small states. California does not look that great so far, but other than that I am happy with the results. Missouri, Colorado, Minnesota, southern states (Alabama and Georgia) are the most impressive. What is also striking is the large margin for Obama in many of the smaller states.

With the large margins in many states Obama could come out on top in delegates or keep it very close to offset California.

This is clearly the most interesting primary in my lifetime...

Update:

I also wanted to add a couple of things on the Republican side. One, Huckabee did incredibly well considering he has no money and is not an establishment candidate. I have mentioned this a few times, but do not underestimate Ed Rollins. He has done an excellent job for Huckabee. Second, John McCain only won 47% of Republicans in Arizona. Does this mean that Arizona could be in play even if McCain is the nominee? Look at the margins for HRC, Obama and Huckabee in their home states, they had blowouts. Saint McCain, not so much...

Vote for Obama!

I hope everyone will vote for Barack Obama today in Arizona.

Yes, we can! Si, Se puede!

35 years of experience (or 35 years of truthiness)

I would normally let something like this go, but it has been repeated numerous times by the Clinton campaign and her supporters. We all know that campaigns can be full of truthiness. What bothers me about this is that many of the same people who are parroting this talking point have never looked into it. This is not my version of the truth as an Obama supporter mind you, but the actual truth. First, 35 years ago she was finishing law school. These two quotes are key for me:

As a corporate attorney
She also served on corporate boards, including that of retail giant Wal-Mart from 1986-1992, frozen yogurt purveyor TCBY from 1985-1992 and cement manufacturer LaFarge from 1990-1992. She earned tens of thousands of dollars in fees from each. Clinton's firm represented Wal-Mart and TCBY while she sat on their boards, a cozy practice that corporate governance experts frown upon because of the potential for conflicts of interest.

Public Service
Clinton did a great deal of public service work during her time at the Rose Law Firm in Little Rock. She served on the board of the Legal Services Corp. during the Carter administration and for a time was its chair. She helped found a child advocacy system in Arkansas and took on several tasks as the state's first lady, such as revisions of the state's education system and rural health care delivery. She also served on the board of directors of the Children's Defense Fund, and on the board of a children's hospital.

I actually don't have a problem with her spending time as a corporate lawyer. I just have a problem with the truthy claim that she has spent her life in public service. She has spent a lot of time in public service, but equal amounts in the private sector as a lawyer or serving on corporate boards.

Once again it is not a bad thing, but the campaign is not truthful about it. Here is more detailed information about it or here. Here is the Clinton campaign's take. This is precisely the problem I have with the Clintons. Instead of twisting the truth, how about claiming both public and private experience? It might be useful for a president to know something about corporate law or corporate governance. I actually think her accomplishments are impressive.

The problem is that the Clintons seem to have an almost pathological compulsion to bend and stretch the truth beyond recognition and often to their detriment for almost no gain. The Obama people are a lot nicer than I am... If I was running his campaign, I think I would mention everyday that she spent about the same amount of time on the board of Wal-Mart as the US Senate.

At any rate, I hope everyone in Arizona is voting tomorrow. If there is one thing most of us can agree upon, it is that we don't want John McCain as President. Happy voting...